839 FXUS64 KOHX 171716 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Afternoon highs remain a few degrees above normal this week with temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s.
- Low rain chances (10-25%) second half of the weekend into early next week, with a slight decrease in temperatures.
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.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
An upper level low is sitting off to our east and that has brought northerly flow to Middle TN. This is starting to push lower dew points into the area, Clarksville has seen them fall into the mid 50s. Higher dew points will linger in southern areas and over the Plateau into the evening. This will keep a very low chance (10-15%) for a pop up shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Highs will be similar to yesterday making it into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Mostly clear tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overall fog chances tonight look low but can`t rule out some patchy spots south of I-40 and over the Plateau towards day break.
Upper level ridge will work east for the end of the week keeping conditions quiet and dry. Highs will warm a bit each day and will peak in the low to mid 90s on Friday.
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.LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The apex of the ridge will be over us on Friday and will bring hot conditions with highs in the low to mid 90s. As we head into the weekend an upper level trough will lift out of the Plains into the Great Lakes. This will bring height falls and some small cooling for the weekend. Highs will remain above average but should fall back into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Rain chances look low over the weekend but there is a low chance for some showers on Sunday as the upper level trough pushes further east. Troughing then looks to set up over the eastern half of the US early next week. This will help to cool daytime highs back into the 80s. With the troughing pattern we will see shower and thunderstorm chances from time to time, hard to pin point exact timing this far out and overall it looks like the better forcing will stay north and west of us.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR. Some MVFR/IFR fog will be possible after 18/06Z especially at KCSV/KSRB through 13Z. Other terminals will have a low chance for fog development overnight, with lower confidence to have mention in TAF for now. Northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots can be expected this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. VFR cigs expected, with some lower cigs possible should fog develop at KCSV/KSRB overnight.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 63 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 57 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 63 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 59 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 58 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 64 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 61 92 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 65 93 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Barnwell
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion