Loyds Bridge, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

636
FXUS64 KLCH 171755
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1255 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloud cover has been slow to develop today allowing temps to hit
  the low 90s by noon. Dry dewpoints should keep HIs in the mid
  90s. Scattered showers/storms still possible this afternoon.
- High temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the
  forecast period.
- Moisture increases into the late weekend, however, rain chances
  likely don`t return until the start of next work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
It`s been a very efficient morning heat-wise as temperatures have
already reached the lower 90s at this hour. Thankfully, dewpoints
have mixed down into the mid to upper 60s which are keeping HIs in
check in the mid 90s so far. We`ll likely still hit afternoon
highs in the low to mid 90s and HIs in the mid to upper 90s.
Weakness continues to be present aloft which should allow for a
wide scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms once again
this afternoon.
Guidance indicates an upper trof spanning across the Gulf States
region with a series of upper lows moving through the northern
fringe of this feature late Thursday and Friday. In the absence
of meaningful surface moisture, even daytime heating will have a
difficult time squeezing out convection Friday.
Highs Thursday and Friday will be very similar to today as the
persistence forecast continues to the start of the weekend.
11/Calhoun
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The pattern attempts to turn over moving towards the later part of
the weekend and into the first part of next week. It`s hard to
call longterm guidance "consistent" other than the breaking down
of surface high over the southeast US and opening the door to
returning rain chances. High moving off to the east could also help
send some moisture back into the inner Gulf Coast region. The
left exit region of an upper jet looks to move overhead Monday
which could be enough lift to invigorate activity to start off the
work week.
Globals do continue showing a deepening low sweeping down into
the heart of the US towards the middle of next week. We`ll be
monitoring the possibility of any severe risk with this feature.
It`ll be very dependent on moisture return off the Gulf and
overall placement of the low. But a cold fropa could be possible
next week sometime.
11/Calhoun
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Cloud cover has been slow to develop today, thus also putting back
the timing for possible convection. With instability increasing, a
round of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible. The best placement is expected to move down through
southwest LA, near LCH. Otherwise, vicinity convection was
included at other terminals.
Conditions will improve with sundown with clear skies and calm
winds expected through 15Z.
11
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Wind and sea conditions are expected to be rather mild through
much of the forecast period as there are few features progged to
move through the region.
Towards the middle next week, an increasing pressure gradient may
result in an increase in winds and seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
For the most part, conditions continue to be hot and dry. Showers
expected today have been rather slow to develop, but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will still be possible with daytime
heating this afternoon.
Hot and dry can be expected Friday and Saturday with little to no
rain chances anticipated. Daytime RH values in the 30 to 50
percent are expected. Area KBDI values have nudged into the 600s+,
making fire weather danger an increasing concern in this dry
pattern. However, winds are also very low which is keeping the
threat rather contained at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  10   0
LCH  92  72  91  71 /  30  20   0   0
LFT  90  69  91  69 /  30  30   0   0
BPT  92  72  91  71 /  20  20  10   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion