Nebo, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

811
FXUS61 KRNK 180719
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
319 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over the Tidewater of Virginia will shift
northeast and weaken today. High pressure builds in with a
moisture-starved backdoor front making it into our area this
weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are possible with this
feature.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Clearing skies and slightly warmer today.
Areas of patchy cloud cover are overhead early this morning.
Where skies are clear, radiational cooling has resulted in
patchy fog. Some of this fog may be dense towards morning.
Low pressure off the NJ coast will weaken and shift NE today.
While troughing lingers aloft over our area, surface high
pressure will keep any precipitation at bay. Expect clouds and
fog this morning before moisture begins to pull away. More
sunshine compared to yesterday will translate to highs in the
mid 70s to low 80s for the mountains, and the low to mid 80s for
the Piedmont.
Tonight, good radiational cooling conditions will support
overnight lows in the low to upper 50s, except for the cooler
spots like Burke`s Garden which will dip into the upper 40s.
Some fog is possible Thursday morning, mainly over SE WV.
Confidence in the near term is high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Slight chance of showers over the weekend
Weather will be mostly quiet during this period, due to a
combination of high pressure and CAD. On Friday, high pressure
over the Appalachians will recede to the north, eventually
combining with a southern Canadian zone of high pressure in the
eastern Great Lakes region. This high will continue tracking
east over the weekend, remaining in the vicinity of New England,
providing a setup for a wedge over the weekend.
A weak front will approach our area on Saturday, stalling around
the Appalachians and remaining there into Sunday. The front`s
location will roughly trace around the Blue Ridge, being held
just west by the aforementioned high pressure and wedge feature.
It snakes south around the Blue Ridge and then east across it,
roughly at the NC/VA border. This front will encourage
cloudiness and isolated showers/storms both Saturday and Sunday
evening, concentrating around the Blue Ridge and southern
Appalachians.
Temperatures will be warmest Friday, with a slight cooldown
associated with the front and CAD over the weekend. Highs by
Sunday will be in the upper 70s and low 80s, versus the mid to
upper 80s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Showers possible in the middle of next week
2) Uncertainty surrounding the track of a cutoff low makes for a
low confidence forecast
Wedging which controlled the forecast over the weekend will
weaken and dissipate as the driving high pressure zone moves
offshore and further east into the Atlantic. The next feature
which will determine most of our conditions next week is a
cutoff mid-level low that comes screaming out of the northern
plains initially, but slows in the Midwest as it comes up
against ridging. With a sufficiently moist environment in place
in the Mid-Atlantic, should the cutoff low force its way
eastward into our region, showers and storms would be likely
most every day next week. The issue is that guidance is
conflicted about the progress this low will make, some holding
it north and west of the area, and some bringing it deep into
the south. Thus, confidence on impacts and the spread of rain
throughout the CWA is low. Currently holding 25-40 PoPs for most
of the forecast area in the afternoons of the mid-week to
communicate this uncertainty.
Temperatures remain around or slightly above normal for late
September.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions expected today, aside from dense fog this
morning, which will affect several TAF sites. Expect clearing
skies during the day with light WNW winds. Overnight tonight,
fog should be confined to LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
Should maintain VFR into the weekend aside from any late night
fog normally at LWB/BCB. A front this weekend looks limited on
moisture so am anticipating VFR. Potential sub-VFR early next
week as high pressure wedges down while warm lifts back north.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion