Abbey Dell, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

818
FXUS63 KLMK 171044
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Mostly dry weather is expected through Saturday, with ongoing
   abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions likely to persist.
*  Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the
   upper 80s to the lower 90s. However, overnight low temperatures
   will be near normal with low 60s expected. Diurnal temperature
   swings around 30 degrees will continue for a few more days.
*  Rain chances return for later in the day on Saturday, and
   continue through Sunday and Monday. Unfortunately, rainfall
   amounts are expected to be light and unlikely to improve overall
   drought conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The upper level pattern will feature a narrow omega-like pattern for
today, with upper ridging over the Midwest and up into the Great
Lakes, with two upper lows on either side of the ridge. The
vertically stacked upper low over the Carolinas will remain over the
coast, but will continue to drift upper level clouds over the region
from the east. At the sfc, a weak remnant boundary will be across
the area today, but a lack of moisture will keep a dry forecast
going. Similar to previous days, temps are forecast to hit the upper
80s to low 90s. We`ll see pretty deep mixing again today, with
afternoon cu field developing around 7-8k ft, and sfc dewpoints
limited to the 50s. As a result, may end up seeing our wind obs
overachieve the forecast slightly this afternoon. Will try to get
ahead of that by bumping up winds some in the forecast grids. Will
also knock down sfc dewpoints to the NBM 10th percentile given the
mixing expected.
For tonight, mostly clear skycover is expected as the eastern upper
low spins off the coast and over the Atlantic. We`ll see a
considerable diurnal drop tonight, as temps fall nearly 30 degrees
from peak afternoon highs to overnight lows. Morning lows will
actually be right near normal, with upper 50s to low 60s expected by
Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
===== Thursday - Friday =====
Hot and dry pattern continues into Thursday and Friday as mid-level
ridging becomes more centered over the Ohio Valley. A deepening
upper level trough will be pivoting across the central Plains at
this time, which will eventually bring our next rain chances later
in the long term period.
Temps for both days are expected to be unseasonably warm, with highs
forecast to hit the upper 80s to lower 90s. Deep mixing will allow
our dewpoints to stay in the 50s, which will help keep heat indices
from straying too much from the sensible temps. Unfortunately
though, this prolonged dry spell, combined with these unseasonably
warm temps, will only worsen drought conditions.
===== Saturday - Sunday =====
The upper trough over the central US will slowly make an eastward
progression over the mid-Mississippi Valley during the weekend, but
upper level ridging will likely hold it`s own over the eastern third
of the US. As a result, arrival of PoPs continue to be delayed even
further into the weekend. Saturday is now expected to remain dry,
though more cloud cover is possible due to the approaching upper
wave. As such, temps are forecast to hit the 90s once again.
Upper troughing finally takes over by Sunday, bringing slightly more
moisture and forcing into the region, leading to some low-end PoPs
gradually spreading east during the day. Overall moisture profile
does not look very saturated, which will likely limit shower
coverage to no more than isolated to scattered later in the day, and
any showers should be pretty light too. Temps should be slightly
lower in response to increased clouds and precip, but with not all
of the area expected to end up with rain, the forecast highs are
still above normal for this time of year, with upper 80s possible.
===== Early Next Week =====
Additional shortwaves will ride through the general upper trough
flow into early next week, which will help keep at least some lower
PoPs across the forecast area. However, the upper trough looks to
deepen over the Great Lakes by mid next week, which could be a good
sign for actually bringing some beneficial rain to the region.
Forecast confidence this far out remains limited as details could
change.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Latest surface analysis continues to show expansive high pressure
across the eastern half of the US, while GOES satellite imagery
reveals mostly clear skies across the region. Expect VFR
conditions to dominate the TAF cycle with light winds mainly out
of the east. HNB and RGA may see a brief period of light fog
around sunrise this morning, but this should burn off quickly.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CG

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion