Abbot, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

466
FXUS61 KCAR 220610
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
210 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to slide offshore today. A cold front
approaches from the west this evening, then begins to slowly
cross the state from North to South late tonight through Tuesday
evening. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front as it
pushes south into the Gulf Maine late Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. High pressure then builds over the region
through Wednesday night, then slides offshore Thursday. A warm
front lifts to the north Thursday night, followed by a cold
front approaching on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northern stream shortwave ridging exits to the east this
morning, followed by the area being on the south side of a
northern stream trough that sets up across southeastern Canada
through Tuesday. It should be dry through most, if not all the
day as a result, with increasing high cloudiness. With the only
chance of any rain today being over far NW areas late in the
afternoon where some isolated showers might impact the area
late. Highs today should range from the lower 60s near the immediate
coast to the lower 70s over portions of the interior. This is
from near to around 5 degrees above normal.
Showers move in to far NW areas early this evening then
gradually overspread the North through the evening, this area
then slowly slides south into central portions of the state
overnight. This area of showers then continues to push south
into Downeast Maine on Tuesday, depending on how well it stays
together. Pops are highest tonight - with likely to categorical
pops over the North. For Tuesday have mainly chance pops
throughout - though the main risk for any showers over the
North would be during the morning hours.
Lows tonight should be from the upper 40s to mid 50s which is
5-10 degrees above normal. Highs on Tuesday should be around 5
degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night: The surface level trof should continue to exit
over the waters. Models show better agreement with rain showers
generally ending over land after midnight. Some showers may hang
around the coast throughout the night and into Wednesday. As of
this update, QPF models show any of the rain showers producing
very little rainfall. Due to plenty of cloud cover, temps should
stay in the 40s in the north and 50s in the south.
Wednesday: Upper level models show the trof over the Great
Lakes becoming stationary. Thus the high pressure to the north
should keep all rain showers over the coast and the waters.
Clouds should decrease across the north, but remain in the
south. Expect temps in the mid to upper 60s across the region.
Wednesday night: The upper level ridge slowly moves off to the
east. Surface models show the next low is expected to slowly
progress across the Great Lakes and into New England. Temps
should decrease into the low 40s for the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The low pressure system should continue to move across New
England. Models begin to disagree on the track and intensity of
the low on Thursday. GFS and Euro show more of a closed low
slowly moving across the western border of the state. The CmC
shows a degrading low moving much faster across the region.
However, consistency seems to return with the models showing
more of a warm front developing and moving to the north of the
state by Thursday night. By Friday, models are in disagreement
again with each extended model showing a different progression
of the jet stream through the weekend. Decided to stay with the
NBM until a clearer picture develops.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through at least 00Z at
northern terminals, then there is a low to moderate chance of
MVFR towards the end of the TAF period there. Confidence is
increased to moderate in a period of IFR ceilings early this
morning at southern terminals, otherwise high confidence in VFR
through then, and then again from mid morning through around
00z. Another round of MVFR or lower conditions is probable at
southern terminals by late this evening.
Light and variable winds increase out of the SW-S at around
10KT or less by around midday. There is a low chance for some
gusts to 15-20KT this afternoon. Confidence in this is too low
to reflect in the TAFs at this time. Winds become light and
variable again late this afternoon/this evening.
late tonight and Tuesday...MVFR or lower developing at all
terminals late tonight and Tuesday morning. There could be brief
periods of VFR at southern terminals during the morning.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night: MVFR ceilings developing at southern terminals
and continuing at northern terminals. Periods of IFR also
likely, especially after midnight. Light N winds 5 kts or less.
Wednesday: MVFR possible in the morning, otherwise VFR. NE
winds 5-10 kts.
Wednesday night to Thursday: VFR with light to calm winds
becoming SW around 5 to 10 kts. Patchy fog possible near inland
waterways which may impact PQI briefly around daybreak.
Thursday night to Friday: Increasing chances of MVFR or lower
with showers. SW winds 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A light pressure gradient over the waters will limit
winds to 10 kt or less through Tuesday. Increasing SE swell
could bring seas to around 5 ft on the coastal ocean waters by
Tuesday. Confidence in this occurring is too low at this time
for any headlines.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels for this
period.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Maloit
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Maloit/LaFlash
Marine...Maloit/LaFlash

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion