Absecon Highlands, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

567
FXUS61 KPHI 031352
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
952 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Northeast remains in control through
the weekend and into early next week. A slightly more unsettled
pattern may begin to take shape entering mid-week, with a cold
front approaching from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad area of high pressure will remain centered over the mid
Atlantic region through today before slowly starting to move
eastward off the coast into Saturday. The result will be
continuing fair and dry weather with mainly clear to at times
partly cloudy skies.
For today, there will be abundant sunshine with just some high,
thin clouds around at times with highs for most places getting
into the low 70s (upper 60s right near the shore and over the
southern Poconos). Winds will become light southwesterly around
5 mph except more S/SE near the coast.
Mainly clear and fair weather continues for tonight and
Saturday with a continuing SW wind as high pressure moves slowly
off the coast. This will result in somewhat warmer conditions
with lows tonight mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s and highs
Saturday getting into the upper 70s to low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Our expansive high pressure system remains the dominant weather
feature through the short term period. This keeps the tranquil
weather pattern going through the weekend. Saturday night and Sunday
night look mostly clear with minimal cloud cover. During the day
Sunday, it is a mostly sunny day. Highs on Sunday will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night are
in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
During the long term period, we do start to see some changes in our
weather pattern. The expansive high pressure system remains in
control through Monday night. Through this time period, the high
pressure system continues to shift offshore but we are still able to
feel the influence from it. This keeps the dry and tranquil
conditions going into Monday night. Cloud cover continues to be
pretty minimal on Monday with another mostly sunny day expected.
Clouds filter in a bit Monday night. Highs on Monday are in the mid
70s to low 80s. Overnight lows Monday night are in the mid 50s to
low 60s.
Tuesday is the day we start to see some changes. When we look at the
upper-levels, we see an upper-level trough based in Ontario leading
to height falls across the region on Tuesday with the actual trough
moving eastward. By Wednesday, we see the trough continuing to move
east with a ripple of energy moving through our region. At the
surface, this will be a cold front. Overall, what this means is that
clouds will continue to build in on Tuesday but the day looks
pretty dry until the mid to late afternoon. This is when we
start to see the potential for some showers. The coverage on
Tuesday looks more isolated and confined to our western zones.
Coverage will gradually increase Tuesday night and on Wednesday
where showers will be more scattered or even a bit widespread at
times with more stratiform rain. Showers linger Wednesday night
into early Thursday for our southeast zones but we trend drier
throughout Thursday.
There is some variability in the speed of the cold front which will
play a role in shower coverage and timing. Model trends over the
past 24 hours have been showing the cold front being on the stronger
side with more moisture and better dynamics which is why the
potential is there for a period of more stratiform rain ahead of the
front. This cold front will also usher in cooler air with the signal
present for noticeable cold air advection Wednesday night into
Thursday. In terms of temperatures, highs on Tuesday are in the mid
70s to low 80s. An increase in clouds along with rain cooled air
will have temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday. We
really notice the cooler air Wednesday night behind the cold front
with lows in the low 40s to low 50s. On Thursday, highs are in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR winds winds generally becoming SW around 5 mph
(except S/SE at KACY). High confidence.
Tonight through Saturday...Continuing VFR with SW winds around
5 mph. High confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Monday night...VFR. No significant
weather.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions
possible with showers late.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory was just expired for zone ANZ450 off
the coast of Monmouth County but continues until 6 PM this
evening for our remaining ocean zones as seas hover around 5
feet.
For tonight through Saturday, conditions will be below Small
Craft Advisory levels for all of our waters.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Tuesday... Winds below 25 kt and seas
below 5 feet. No marine headlines anticipated. Fair weather.
Rip Currents...
A high risk of rip currents is likely to continue through the
end of the week. However, the surf program ended on Tuesday,
September 30. No further surf forecasts or rip current
statements will be issued until May 2026.
Always obey posted Beach Flags. If you enter the surf zone,
always have a floatation device with you and swim near a
lifeguard if possible. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float and do not swim against the current. If able, swim
parallel to the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore
and call or wave for help.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guzzo
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion