Accord, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

398
FXUS61 KALY 201006
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
606 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over southeast Canada and New England will result
in dry conditions with seasonably warm days and chilly nights
through the weekend. As the high shifts east off the coast, a
developing southerly flow will result in warming temperatures
early next week. Chances for some rain will also arrive Monday
night into Tuesday associated with an approaching frontal
system.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
- Frost Advisory in effect again tonight into Sunday Morning
  for most areas north of I-90, except a Freeze Warning for
  Hamilton County.
Discussion:
A large area of high pressure extending from near the
Ontario/Quebec border SE into northern NY will settle in across
the region this weekend result in dry conditions. PWAT anomalies
will be around -1 to -2 STDEV. After a cool start to today,
temperatures will warm this afternoon due to abundant sunshine
and decent mixing. Highs look to reach the upper 60s to lower
70s in valleys with a light northeast breeze.
As the center of high pressure moves into northern New England
tonight bringing clear skies and light winds, this will result
in the potential for more widespread frost development. Have
issued a Frost Advisory for most areas north of I-90 except a
Freeze Warning for Hamilton County from 12 AM to 8 AM. Lows
temperatures expected to range from around 30F in the coldest
spots of the ADKs to lower/mid 40s in the mid Hudson Valley.
Lows in the Frost Advisory will mainly be 33F to 37F.
Temperatures will rebound into the mid 60s to mid 70s Sunday
afternoon despite the cold start due to continued sunshine and a
developing southerly flow as the high shifts east off the New
England coast. Diurnal temperature ranges will be around 30-40
degrees with the dry air mass in place. Low temperatures will be
cool Sun night, but not quite as cold as the previous night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:
- Chances for at least some rainfall through next week.
Discussion:
Mon looks to be the last dry day as the influence of high
pressure positioned off the coast starts to drift farther away.
A southerly breeze and a warming air mass should result in high
temperatures warming back to above normal levels.
The next chance of some showers arrives Mon night into Tue
associated with a short wave aloft and weak surface cool front
approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. While
moisture/humidity levels do increase, forcing looks somewhat
limited so coverage of showers looks to be mainly scattered.
Will mention slight chance of thunder Tue afternoon with
guidance indicating some limited instability developing. The
front looks to push southward across the area Tue night with
additional scattered showers.
Forecast confidence then decreases from Wed-Thu. The front may
stall just to our south over the mid Atlantic region, so will
maintain chance PoPs on Wed in proximity to the front. The front
may then return northward as a warm front Wed night into Thu,
but this will depend on the strength/position of high pressure
positioned north of the region. Given drought conditions, NBM
72-hour probabilities for > 0.50" rain through Thu are 40-60% at
this time. Temperatures look to be at least slightly above
normal through next week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...There has been some patchy mist at GFL early
this morning, but this should dissipate by the start of the 12z TAF
period. VFR conditions with just a few high clouds expected at all
terminals through today and well into tonight. Have mentioned patchy
fog late tonight at GFL/PSF, but will need to refine
timing/magnitude with subsequent TAF issuances. Winds will generally
be at 4-8 kt from the northeast today, diminishing to light and
variable this evening through the remainder of the night.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ032-042.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ032-041>043-083-084.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ033.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ033.
MA...None.
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/JPV

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion