Acme, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

220
FXUS63 KAPX 270537
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
137 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog again tonight...
- Mild and drier weather possible next week...
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Overall omega block across the CONUS...with an upper low over
SoCal/SW US...and again over the SE US; ridge axis generally across
the central US. Most of the moisture is trapped across the southern
US, over the Desert SW and again along the Gulf Coast up through the
East Coast ahead of troughing aloft. In the northern stream,
troughing across Alberta and Saskatchewan with cold advection and
height falls ahead of a 120+kt upper jet...troughing over Hudson Bay
with even stronger height falls (20dam/12hrs) and much colder air
(0C at 850mb). Surface high pressure just to our north...but in the
meantime...a BCZ drapes from a low over Saskatchewan through the
Dakotas...across N. Lower MI, and up into Quebec where a 972mb
occluded surface low exists over eastern Hudson Bay.
Expect rising heights through the rest of the afternoon as surface
high pressure tries to build overhead; baroclinic zone to slowly sag
south with time...though think low-level moisture will hang on
across parts of the area. High pressure will be short-lived,
however...with height falls already approaching the region overnight
tonight ahead of a PV maxima swinging across Manitoba...dragging a
surface cold front into western Lake Superior/Upper MS Valley by
morning.
Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:
Low clouds/drizzle through the rest of the day...fog potential
tonight... High-bridged boundary in the area today will likely keep
some low-level moisture trapped across the area through the rest of
the afternoon and into tonight. Expect we will see yet another night
of patchy dense fog/low stratus. Weak return flow late tonight ahead
of the next system could allow for a few showers to crop up...but
may do little aside from bringing clouds back into the picture
toward morning. Overnight lows could dip as low as the upper 30s for
parts of the EUP and perhaps Tip of the Mitt/Presque Isle county if
we continue to scour out the low-level moisture...but for now have
held temps in the lower 40s...and think it will remain a bit
warmer/cloudier tonight for most areas near/south of M-32.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Days 2-3 (Saturday-Sunday)...
Trough axis swings across southern Canada Saturday morning...slowly
draping that cold front down across our region, with signals for
this to ultimately wash out/stall out to our south going into
Saturday night...as high pressure quickly rebounds. Currently
expecting ridge axis to build across the northeastern
US/Midwest...as energy looks to cut off across the southeastern US
in advance of anticipated tropical activity over the western
Atlantic.
Expectation for us...a few showers possible on Saturday,
particularly toward the EUP where better forcing and moisture should
end up as that boundary sweeps in through the afternoon. Think this
should sink to our south...and could leave us a bit cool Saturday
night (not impossible localized interior areas could drop into the
upper 30s)...though do wonder about low-level moisture holding on
and leading to fog (again). Sunday right now looks quiet/dry with
the boundary off to our south.
Days 4-7 (Monday-Thursday)...
Washed out boundary from Sunday looks to stall somewhere to our
south this weekend as ridge axis builds overhead, setting up the
beginnings of a Rex block over the eastern CONUS again. Assuming
ridge axis is overhead, would look for general suppression of
most/all precipitation chances, though do wonder how much of an
influence return flow will have on the outskirts of the ridge axis
early this week...which could lead to a few more showers than
currently expected. Otherwise...ridge axis overhead signals a period
of warm weather (highs well above normal, in the 70s and perhaps
near 80) early next week.
Pattern also suggests development of high pressure near/over Hudson
Bay, which would put the Upper Great Lakes in an area favorable for
increasingly dry easterly flow going through the week, which could
finally scour out some of this pesky low-level moisture that`s been
hanging around and giving us patchy fog the last several nights.
Think concerns with this pattern will be two-fold:  1) Persistent
dry, easterly flow in an already largely moisture-starved area
(drought conditions have been slowly expanding across central
MI/Saginaw Bay the last few weeks) could enhance fire weather
concerns next week.   2) Persistent dry, easterly flow also suggests
potential for chilly overnight lows, and will need to watch
potential for more widespread low temperatures in the 30s next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Areas of FG/BR are leading to IFR/LIFR conditions at multiple
terminals this morning. BKN-OVC skies of ~4 to 5 kft will cause
the FG/BR to be intermittent at some NE lower terminals (KAPN).
FG/BR should lift and scatter after 15Z for most terminals.
Winds will become SW/W after 10Z with occasional gusts up to
15kts. A weak and dry FROPA will move through around 00Z,
turning winds N/NE for the remainder of the period.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...ELD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion