Adger, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

595
FXUS64 KBMX 240542
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Central
  Alabama Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
- Medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) of greater than 1 inch of
  rain Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
Mostly fair weather cumulus was present across much of Central
Alabama early this afternoon, with an upper level shortwave
passing off to our north over the Ohio Valley region. Due to a
pocket of dry air aloft, very little convective development is
anticipated through this afternoon other than an isolated shower
or storm as far south as the I-20 corridor. To the north, more
scattered development will be possible along the U.S. 278 corridor
from Marion east to Cherokee County. Under plenty of sunshine, hot
temperatures are expected once again with highs in the lower 90s
with a few mid 90s not out of the question. An effective warm
front is expected to lift northward during the overnight hours
tonight, increasing low level moisture and potentially leading to
fog formation as indicated by high-res guidance members across
the U.S. 80 corridor, as far east as Montgomery. I`ve gone ahead
and added patchy fog to the forecast in those areas and will
watch satellite and observation trends overnight to determine
potential updates to the areal extent of the fog.
The hot and dry overall pattern that we`ve been stuck in for a
long period of time will finally change during the day on
Wednesday. A dynamic, closed upper level system will eject
eastward from the Rocky Mountain states, with a surface low
advertised to move into northern Arkansas by Wednesday afternoon.
A trailing cold front will stretch southwestward into northern
Louisiana and southeast Texas, with widespread shower and storm
formation out ahead of it. Much of the day Wednesday will remain
mostly dry across Central Alabama, except for far northwest counties
during the afternoon. Storms will eventually fire during the late
afternoon hours north of I-20 and west of I-65 ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough axis. With sufficient instability and
additional shear, some storms are expected to be on the strong
side with a few severe storms not out of the question. Isolated
damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these, along
with locally heavy rainfall as PWATs rise close to 2 inches.
Convective activity is forecast to be mostly diurnally-driven in
terms of strength with less overall coverage during the overnight
hours and into early Thursday morning. The front, now mostly
parallel to the mean flow may either stall or significantly slow
its eastward progression by Thursday afternoon. A mid to upper
level cut-off closed low is then progged to develop by forecast
guidance late in the day, with numerous to widespread showers and
storms developing once again. A potent 500mb vort max across the
northern Gulf Coast will provide good synoptic lift and additional
shear to support at least strong storms with a few isolated severe
storms across the eastern and southeastern half of Central
Alabama through late Thursday night.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Monday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
Global guidance is coming into better agreement this afternoon
with the continued development of the cut-off, closed upper low
lingering across the Deep South through Sunday. Highest rain
chances will remain across the eastern and southeastern half of
the CWA as the low slowly pivots eastward during the day on
Friday. Saturday still appears mostly dry, but we could see
lingering wrap-around convective development which is quite
difficult to quantify 5 days out. I wouldn`t be surprised to see
PoPs increase with time as we get closer, especially east of I-65
through Saturday afternoon. Speaking of PoPs increasing, global
guidance now continues to indicate the cut-off low lingering over
the Deep South perhaps as long as next Tuesday. That would greatly
influence the overall forecast with higher PoPs and cooler daytime
temperatures. We`ll see if those trends hold up over the coming
days.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Aside for a potential of light fog at MGM in the hours around
sunrise, VFR conditions are expected across central Alabama TAF
sites through at least 18z today. Advancing cold front will start
to push shower and thunderstorm activity into the area from the
northwest this afternoon, and I`ve included some visibility
restrictions due to the convection at TCL, BHM, EET, and ASN
starting about 23z. Latest model guidance shows southeastern
advancement of rain will slow down this evening, so it may be one
or two more forecast cycles before we start to introduce TSRA into
the MGM and AUO TAFs.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An approaching cold front will bring enhanced rain chances to
central Alabama starting this afternoon in the northwest, and
spreading southeastward tonight and Thursday. A return to drier
weather is forecast on Saturday with perhaps a few lingering rain
showers across east Alabama.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  68  83  64 /  40  70  70  30
Anniston    91  70  82  65 /  30  60  80  30
Birmingham  91  70  83  66 /  50  70  70  20
Tuscaloosa  91  71  86  66 /  60  70  60  20
Calera      92  70  85  66 /  40  60  80  30
Auburn      92  71  83  68 /  10  30  80  50
Montgomery  94  71  84  67 /  20  40  80  50
Troy        92  70  84  67 /  10  20  80  60
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion