595 FXUS64 KBMX 240542 AFDBMXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Central Alabama Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
- Medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) of greater than 1 inch of rain Wednesday through Thursday.
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.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 153 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
Mostly fair weather cumulus was present across much of Central Alabama early this afternoon, with an upper level shortwave passing off to our north over the Ohio Valley region. Due to a pocket of dry air aloft, very little convective development is anticipated through this afternoon other than an isolated shower or storm as far south as the I-20 corridor. To the north, more scattered development will be possible along the U.S. 278 corridor from Marion east to Cherokee County. Under plenty of sunshine, hot temperatures are expected once again with highs in the lower 90s with a few mid 90s not out of the question. An effective warm front is expected to lift northward during the overnight hours tonight, increasing low level moisture and potentially leading to fog formation as indicated by high-res guidance members across the U.S. 80 corridor, as far east as Montgomery. I`ve gone ahead and added patchy fog to the forecast in those areas and will watch satellite and observation trends overnight to determine potential updates to the areal extent of the fog.
The hot and dry overall pattern that we`ve been stuck in for a long period of time will finally change during the day on Wednesday. A dynamic, closed upper level system will eject eastward from the Rocky Mountain states, with a surface low advertised to move into northern Arkansas by Wednesday afternoon. A trailing cold front will stretch southwestward into northern Louisiana and southeast Texas, with widespread shower and storm formation out ahead of it. Much of the day Wednesday will remain mostly dry across Central Alabama, except for far northwest counties during the afternoon. Storms will eventually fire during the late afternoon hours north of I-20 and west of I-65 ahead of the approaching shortwave trough axis. With sufficient instability and additional shear, some storms are expected to be on the strong side with a few severe storms not out of the question. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these, along with locally heavy rainfall as PWATs rise close to 2 inches.
Convective activity is forecast to be mostly diurnally-driven in terms of strength with less overall coverage during the overnight hours and into early Thursday morning. The front, now mostly parallel to the mean flow may either stall or significantly slow its eastward progression by Thursday afternoon. A mid to upper level cut-off closed low is then progged to develop by forecast guidance late in the day, with numerous to widespread showers and storms developing once again. A potent 500mb vort max across the northern Gulf Coast will provide good synoptic lift and additional shear to support at least strong storms with a few isolated severe storms across the eastern and southeastern half of Central Alabama through late Thursday night.
56/GDG
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.LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Monday) Issued at 153 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
Global guidance is coming into better agreement this afternoon with the continued development of the cut-off, closed upper low lingering across the Deep South through Sunday. Highest rain chances will remain across the eastern and southeastern half of the CWA as the low slowly pivots eastward during the day on Friday. Saturday still appears mostly dry, but we could see lingering wrap-around convective development which is quite difficult to quantify 5 days out. I wouldn`t be surprised to see PoPs increase with time as we get closer, especially east of I-65 through Saturday afternoon. Speaking of PoPs increasing, global guidance now continues to indicate the cut-off low lingering over the Deep South perhaps as long as next Tuesday. That would greatly influence the overall forecast with higher PoPs and cooler daytime temperatures. We`ll see if those trends hold up over the coming days.
56/GDG
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Aside for a potential of light fog at MGM in the hours around sunrise, VFR conditions are expected across central Alabama TAF sites through at least 18z today. Advancing cold front will start to push shower and thunderstorm activity into the area from the northwest this afternoon, and I`ve included some visibility restrictions due to the convection at TCL, BHM, EET, and ASN starting about 23z. Latest model guidance shows southeastern advancement of rain will slow down this evening, so it may be one or two more forecast cycles before we start to introduce TSRA into the MGM and AUO TAFs.
/61/
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.FIRE WEATHER...
An approaching cold front will bring enhanced rain chances to central Alabama starting this afternoon in the northwest, and spreading southeastward tonight and Thursday. A return to drier weather is forecast on Saturday with perhaps a few lingering rain showers across east Alabama.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 68 83 64 / 40 70 70 30 Anniston 91 70 82 65 / 30 60 80 30 Birmingham 91 70 83 66 / 50 70 70 20 Tuscaloosa 91 71 86 66 / 60 70 60 20 Calera 92 70 85 66 / 40 60 80 30 Auburn 92 71 83 68 / 10 30 80 50 Montgomery 94 71 84 67 / 20 40 80 50 Troy 92 70 84 67 / 10 20 80 60
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.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION.../61/
NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion