Adrian Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

349
FXUS63 KDVN 070733
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
233 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Although the risk is very low (90%) confidence of dry conditions with
near normal temperatures
Cool Canadian high pressure will bring dry conditions along with
temperatures near normal.
Thursday night
Assessment...low (20%) confidence on rain
Return flow aloft will signal the start of another warm-up for the
area. An upper level disturbance embedded in the flow aloft will
work with what moisture that is present to possibly generate some
rain. This far out the signal is weak but it has been persistent.
The model consensus yields a 20 percent chance for rain with areas
west of the Mississippi favored. Thus while there is a risk of rain,
there is an 80 percent probability that much of the area will remain
dry.
Friday through Sunday
Assessment...A near certainty (>98%) of warmer than normal
conditions
The global models rebuild the upper ridge back into the Midwest for
the weekend. As a result temperatures will again be heading well
above normal for mid-October. The downside is that dry conditions
will also be seen.
Sunday night and Monday
Assessment...A near certainty (>98%) of warmer than normal
temperatures. Low (20-30%) confidence of rain.
The warmer than normal conditions will persist into the new work
week while the return flow aloft becomes quite strong and the
moisture transport respectable. However, there area a few unknown
variables. The primary one is the amount of mixing that occurs
during the day. If the mixing is deep enough then moisture levels
would lower, especially during the day. The lowering of moisture
levels brings into question the potential for rain. The model
consensus currently yields a 20 percent chance of rain during the
day Monday with a 20-30 percent chance Sunday night.
Given the overall large scale picture, while rain is possible, it
would most likely be light and spotty in nature.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A post frontal period of MVFR/IFR with scattered SHRA will be
seen through 14z/07 across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.
An isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out but the probability of a
TSRA impacting a TAF site is 10 percent at best. After 14z/07
VFR conditions as cool Canadian high pressure builds into the
Midwest.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion