Advance Mills, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS61 KLWX 030715
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
315 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure initially located overhead will shift offshore
this weekend. A strong cold front will move through during the
middle of next week. High pressure will build back in behind the
cold front for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A broad area of high pressure remains in place along the East Coast
this morning, extending from New England southwestward down the
spine of the Appalachians. This area of high pressure will bring
continued dry conditions to the area today. Aloft, a weak upper
trough axis embedded within broader ridging across the eastern two-
thirds of the CONUS extends from the Great Lakes southward through
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. While this feature doesn`t have
a surface or mid-level reflection, it will be enough to produce
some high clouds that will pass through today. A mix of sun and
high clouds is forecast today, along with light winds and highs
in the low to mid 70s.
Any leftover high clouds will dissipate this evening as the upper
trough axis weakens and shifts off to our east. Clear skies and
light to calm winds are expected, with lows in the 40s and lower
50s. Some patchy fog may be possible later tonight, especially to
the west of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will shift offshore this weekend as upper level
ridging strengthens overhead. The lingering influence of high
pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will result in continued
dry conditions, with sunny skies during the day and clear skies
at night. As high pressure moves offshore winds will turn out
of the south, which will lead to a gradual warming trend in both
high and low temperatures. High temperatures on both Saturday
and Sunday will be in the upper 70s to near 80, with lower 70s
in the mountains. Low temperatures will be upper 40s to 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad area of high pressure over the mid-Atlantic and northwestern
Atlantic Ocean will interact with a slow-moving cold front over the
central Great Lakes to create a persistent light to moderate
southerly flow over the region. This southerly flow will allow for
our temperatures to be above average for October. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions
Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday as high pressure remains the big
influence. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could work their
way into the Appalachians late Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of
and along the approaching cold front. The cold front reaches the
heart of our region Wednesday and Wednesday night; thus, bringing an
increased chance for showers and thunderstorms in all areas.
Temperatures will be close to average due to cloud cover and
convection on Wednesday into Wednesday night. After the front pushes
through the region and high pressure from Canada builds southward on
Thursday, dry conditions and chilly temperatures will ensue for late
in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through this
weekend. Some patchy fog may be possible in the vicinity of MRB, and
potentially CHO each morning. Winds will be light out of the south
during the daylight hours each day, before going calm overnight.
VFR conditions Monday through Tuesday. Winds southerly 5 to 10 knots
through the period. MVFR conditions could develop at the CHO and MRB
terminals Tuesday night due to some shower activity.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters through
this weekend with high pressure nearby. Winds will be lightest today
and tomorrow, before increasing slightly to around 10 knots on
Sunday.
No marine hazards Monday through Tuesday night. Winds southerly 5 to
10 knots through the period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As high pressure builds southward, easterly winds at the mouth
of the bay are weakening, which is allowing water to drain out
into the Atlantic. Anomalies are dropping as a result, and are
expected to slowly continue to do so over the next couple days.
Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the ongoing tidal
cycle at Annapolis, Alexandria, and Baltimore. As anomalies
continue to decrease, subsequent tidal flooding isn`t forecast.
It will be close at Annapolis however for the next few tide
cycles, and most locations will make it up into Action Stage.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/KJP
MARINE...KLW/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion