Alamogordo, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS64 KEPZ 251704
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1104 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Thunderstorm chances will begin ramping up starting in
   Southwestern New Mexico today, then slowly spreading east
   through the weekend.
- Localized heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe
   thunderstorms will be possible.
- Thunderstorm chances will diminish on Monday, and mainly be
   focused east of the Rio Grande, before a general drying trend
   arrives Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Active weekend ahead as upper low currently over central CA will
be pushing into SW AZ and stall out. For tonight, looks like low
level convergence zone sets up over SE AZ and convection then
pushes east into SW NM. Pretty good agreement among models that
the El Paso area/RGV will be about the eastward extent of storms.
May see a couple severe storms out west where best shear will be
located.
Going into Fri/Fri night, will start to see some diffluence aloft
setting up over the CWA as upper low makes it into the
CA/AZ/Mexico region. Could be a little later start to storms out
west with outflows progressing eastward through the area and
triggering storms through much of the night. Decent instability
around, but shear not great, so just expect some strong storms
with maybe a stray severe one.
Saturday will be similar to Fri with the upper low not moving
much. In fact, as is typical with these cutoff lows, the GFS has
trended slower with opening up and lifting out this system. Again
expect storms to form out west and then push east into the evening
hours. The one thing that could limit convection will be lingering
debris clouds that don`t allow things to get very unstable,
especially out east. Either way, looks like with the disturbances
moving through, should at least get scattered to numerous showers.
The upper low starts to open up and lift out on Sunday. This
brings drier air into the western zones, but sets up a pseudo
dryline near the Rio Grande which will then be the focus for
storms into Monday. This is where I think best chance for severe
storms will be as the upper level SW flow increases with SE
surface winds. Looks like enough lift and moisture linger into
Monday out east for at least isolated showers. Drier air moves in
by Tuesday and no precipitation is expected for the remainder of
the period.
Temperatures will start out warmer, but cool down into the weekend
with the increased moisture and precipitation. If clouds stick
around through much of the day, could have some areas in the
eastern lowlands not get out of the 70s this weekend. Drier air
going into the middle of next week will bring high temperatures
back into the mid 80s to possibly lower 90s in the lowest
elevations.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 to start the period with increasing cloud
coverage going into the late afternoon and overnight as storms
start developing by 21Z out west of the Continental Divide and
then push east towards the RGV after 00Z. All terminals have a
chance for VRB20G35KT 3-5SM -TSRA BKN060-080 BKN150-200 but KDMN
has the best chance. Skies will gradually see some clearing after
06Z starting out west but generally expect FEW-SCT100-120 SCT200
to linger through the remainder of the period. Winds generally
southerly at 5-10KTS to start the period then shifting to the
west/southwest behind thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Fire concerns will be minimal over the next several days as
moisture moves into the region and there will be a daily chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for precip today will
be west of the RGV, then all areas Fri/Sat before shifting to the
east for Sun/Mon. Temperatures will be within 5 degrees of normal
through Monday before warming back up going into the middle of
next week. Winds generally under 15 mph except near thunderstorms
through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  87  65  83 /  20  30  50  40
Sierra Blanca            56  82  59  79 /  10  40  50  60
Las Cruces               59  83  60  79 /  40  50  50  50
Alamogordo               59  83  59  79 /  10  40  40  50
Cloudcroft               45  62  44  59 /  10  50  40  70
Truth or Consequences    58  83  59  79 /  20  50  50  50
Silver City              53  77  53  72 /  70  60  60  70
Deming                   59  84  59  80 /  60  50  50  50
Lordsburg                58  82  59  76 /  70  70  60  60
West El Paso Metro       64  85  65  81 /  30  30  50  40
Dell City                57  85  61  82 /  10  30  30  40
Fort Hancock             63  88  63  84 /  10  50  50  50
Loma Linda               58  78  58  74 /  10  40  50  50
Fabens                   62  86  64  82 /  20  30  50  40
Santa Teresa             61  83  62  79 /  30  30  50  40
White Sands HQ           62  84  62  79 /  30  50  50  50
Jornada Range            59  83  60  77 /  30  50  50  50
Hatch                    58  85  59  80 /  40  50  50  50
Columbus                 61  84  61  80 /  50  50  50  50
Orogrande                58  82  59  77 /  20  40  50  50
Mayhill                  50  73  50  69 /   0  50  30  80
Mescalero                49  74  49  70 /  10  50  40  70
Timberon                 48  70  48  67 /  10  50  40  70
Winston                  47  74  48  72 /  30  60  50  60
Hillsboro                55  82  55  77 /  50  50  50  60
Spaceport                56  83  58  79 /  20  50  50  50
Lake Roberts             48  76  47  72 /  60  70  60  70
Hurley                   54  79  54  74 /  60  60  60  60
Cliff                    55  81  52  78 /  70  60  60  60
Mule Creek               52  78  51  74 /  70  60  60  60
Faywood                  56  79  55  73 /  50  60  60  60
Animas                   58  80  58  76 /  70  70  60  60
Hachita                  57  81  58  76 /  60  60  60  60
Antelope Wells           57  80  58  77 /  80  70  60  60
Cloverdale               55  74  55  72 /  80  80  60  60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion