Alco, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS64 KLZK 151105 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
-Chances for afternoon showers/storms each day
-While some folks will see beneficial rainfall...widespread heavy
rainfall is not expected
-Cooler temps will be seen by later this week...mainly due to
 rainfall potential and cloud cover. Muggy conditions will persist
 however.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Mostly quiet conditions are ongoing across the area early this Mon
morning...though some spotty convection was noted to the NE of the
state. This activity was moving generally SW over time...so have kept
some POPs going early this Mon morning across NERN sections.
Otherwise...mild/warm conditions will be seen...with lows only
dropping down into the mid 60s to low 70s.
As the activity to the NE drops SW this morning...will probably see
some additional isolated to widely scattered convection re-fire this
Mon afternoon along any residual outflow boundaries as they drop SW
over time...and with weak upper energy also dropping SW. As a
result...have bumped POPs into the 30-40 percent range where the
best potential for afternoon convection will be. This will be mainly
across the NRN/NWRN half of the area. Temps may be a deg or two
cooler for this Mon afternoon compared to previous days due to
better POPs and cloud cover...but still well above normal and muggy
for this time of yr.
There will continue to be some potential each day into at least Thu
for some afternoon convection for some portion of the state as there
will remain weakness in the upper flow. While no major systems will
be passing over the region to trigger organized
convection...isolated/scattered convection will be possible each
afternoon. This will bring some relief from the dry/hot weather
recently...but moisture levels looks to remain muggy. The threat for
seeing strong to SVR Wx should remain low each afternoon...but an
isolated strong storm may be seen.
By later this week into the weekend...an upper low over the Great
Plains will slowly drift east just north of  AR...with some upper
waves passing by on the SRN periphery of this low over AR. This
setup may bring some better chances for convection Fri into
Sat...along with cooler temps. These cooler temps and better rain
chances will persist into Sun as flow aloft will be a bit more
pronounced from the west/NW at the end of the forecast.
While temps will start off in the 80s and 90s...with dewpts in the
60s and 70s...temps will drop into the 70s and 80s by this coming
weekend for highs. Dewpts will likely remain in the 60s and 70s
however. Lows will be warmest early in the forecast as well...in the
60s and 70s...dropping to mainly the 60s by this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
While some patchy fog may still be seen this morning...most sites
were remaining VFR this morning. Some isolated to scattered
convection may be seen by this afternoon...with the best
potential for NRN sites. By later tonight...expect most of any
activity that does develop to dissipate overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  66  93  64 /  30  20  10   0
Camden AR         94  66  93  65 /  20  20  20  10
Harrison AR       90  65  89  63 /  40  20  30  10
Hot Springs AR    94  68  93  66 /  30  20  30  10
Little Rock   AR  93  69  92  68 /  30  20  10  10
Monticello AR     95  68  94  68 /  30  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      94  66  92  65 /  20  20  30  10
Mountain Home AR  92  66  93  64 /  30  20  20  10
Newport AR        94  68  93  67 /  20  10  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     95  68  93  66 /  30  20  10   0
Russellville AR   94  68  92  67 /  40  20  20  10
Searcy AR         93  67  93  65 /  30  20  10   0
Stuttgart AR      94  68  93  68 /  30  10  10   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion