Alva, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

769
FXUS62 KTBW 240651
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
251 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Ridge axis aloft extends across the FL Panhandle and N Peninsula to
the north of a weakness over the central and southern Peninsula,
while surface ridging extends across the peninsula from the W
Atlantic into the Gulf. Setup will favor generally light flow today
with afternoon through evening sea breeze and outflow boundary
interactions as the focus for shower and storm development, with
highest PoPs and coverage continuing south of I-4 over S interior
and SWFL locations.
Troughing aloft digs over the E/SE U.S. on Thursday and Friday
while an associated cold front pushes across the SE U.S. and into
the Panhandle late week and into the weekend, with southwest flow
setting up over the area as the surface ridge axis shifts south,
leading to showers and storms favoring offshore and coastal
locations overnight through morning before shifting to interior
and E FL locations afternoon through evening.
Over the weekend guidance suggests that the base of the digging E/SE
U.S. trough stalls and cuts off near the S Appalachians/TN Valley
as NW Atlantic ridging builds to its east, while the cold front
slowly sags into the northern to central Peninsula and gradually
weakens, generally supporting a similar shower and storm
timing/location setup as Thursday/Friday. At the same time a pair
of tropical disturbances (current Invests 93L and 94L) will move
west-northwest to northwest into the W Atlantic south of the NW
Atlantic ridging, where a complex forecast evolution over the
weekend into early next week will depend on multiple components --
potential interaction between the disturbances themselves given
their proximity to the other, as well as the strength and exact
location of the cut-off low over the E U.S. and the NW Atlantic
ridging. At this time it is simply too soon to confidently
identify a most likely eventual scenario, however all of the E
U.S. coast including the FL Peninsula should continue to monitor
the latest developments as the forecast continues to be refined,
with the time frame of any potential related direct local threat
likely to fall between late this weekend through early next week.
Shower/storm chances look to linger into mid week as broad troughing
aloft persists over the E/SE U.S., but again will largely depend on
the aforementioned systems. Temps mostly seasonal through the next
week, with highs in the lower to mid 90s today likely settling into
mostly the upper 80s to lower 90s from Thursday onward, with
overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s and perhaps a few upper 60s
far north next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this morning, then
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening causing MVFR/local IFR conditions. Winds will remain rather
light from the east through the TAF forecast period, except there
should be a shift to northwest to west during this afternoon and
early evening at TPA, PIE, and SRQ, as the sea breeze moves
inland.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Ridging over the waters with easterly flow continuing today with
an afternoon shift onshore as the seabreeze develops. Ridge axis
shifts south Thursday and Friday as a cold front approaches the
waters with winds shifting to southwest and west late week into
the weekend favoring overnight through early morning showers and
storms over the waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Surface ridging across the area today sinks south on Thursday and
Friday as a cold front approaches the peninsula into the weekend,
with rain chances mainly south of I-4 this afternoon and evening with
sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions, transitioning to a
pattern favoring activity shifting from coastal to interior and E FL
locations from the morning through afternoon and early evening
hours Thursday through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  91  77 /  30  20  50  20
FMY  92  76  92  75 /  60  30  50  20
GIF  94  76  92  75 /  50  20  60  30
SRQ  91  76  90  75 /  40  20  40  20
BKV  93  72  91  71 /  30  20  50  20
SPG  90  78  88  77 /  30  20  40  20
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
AVIATION/DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Close

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion