Ambrose, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

052
FXUS62 KJAX 172349
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
749 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Weak high pressure ridge remains over area through Tonight, with
mostly clear skies expected. Any lingering showers will dissipate
soon. Patchy inland fog is anticipated overnight as cool air sits
over relatively warmer bodies of waters and marshy areas. Another
below normal night Tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s
inland, while the warm coastal waters keep beach communities
around 70 for lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Predominantly dry weather conditions will continue through the end
of the week with a slight chance for isolated showers developing
over inland areas during the afternoon hours and the highest
chances for convection occurring over north central Florida and
extending though Flagler and St Johns counties. Prevailing flow
will shift about to become more out of the east by the end of the
period, bringing in gradually increasing moisture levels going
into the weekend. High temperatures during this period will reach
up into the lower 90s for inland areas and in the mid 80s for
areas along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down
into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s
near the shoreline.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the south by the
beginning of next week as high pressure ridging to the north pulls
away and moist air with PWAT values measuring above 2 inches is
drawn into the forecast area resulting in increased chances for
more widespread convection by Monday and Tuesday. High
temperatures for the weekend and into the beginning of next week
will drop to be slightly below the seasonal average with overnight
low temperatures dropping down to be near and slightly above
average for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Patchy inland fog is expected to restrict visibilities inland
Tonight, affecting the KGNV and KVQQ sites. Otherwise, prevailing
VFR conditions are forecast for this 00z TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Weak high pressure will remain situated over our region through
Thursday. Strong high pressure will then build southeastward from
Hudson Bay, Canada late this week, with this feature then shifting
over New England by Saturday as it wedges down the southeastern
seaboard. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and
offshore through Friday night. Coastal troughing will sharpen
over our near shore waters this weekend, resulting in
strengthening onshore winds, building seas, and an increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Seas will build to 3-5 feet
on Saturday as sustained speeds climb to Caution levels of 15-20
knots both near shore and offshore. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are possible late this weekend and early next week, as
seas likely build to at least Caution levels of 4-6 feet
throughout our local waters by early Sunday.
Rip Currents: A lingering northeasterly swell will combine with
breakers of 2-4 feet at area beaches to keep a moderate risk in
place through Thursday. Strengthening northeasterly winds on
Friday will likely yield a higher end moderate risk on Friday at
area beaches, with a high risk possible during the afternoon hours
along the northeast FL beaches, where surf heights will gradually
build. A high risk is likely this weekend and early next week as
rough surf conditions prevail.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
An unseasonably dry air mass this afternoon will drop minimum
relative humidity values to the 30-35 percent range across inland
southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of north central
FL. Light westerly transport winds and elevated mixing heights
will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon for
locations north of Alma in interior southeast GA. Meanwhile,
prevailing easterly surface and transport winds across northeast
and north central FL will combine with elevated mixing heights
across to create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon for
the Suwannee Valley and portions of north central FL, while fair
values generally prevail elsewhere. Light and variable surface and
transport winds on Thursday will result in poor to fair daytime
dispersion values for most of inland southeast GA, while easterly
surface and transport winds persist across northeast and north
central FL, where elevated mixing heights will generally yield
good daytime dispersion values for inland locations, with fair
values forecast elsewhere. East-northeasterly transport winds will
gradually strengthen on Friday, with breezy surface winds
developing along the northeast FL coast during the afternoon
hours. These strengthening winds will combine with elevated mixing
heights to create good daytime dispersion values at most
locations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  91  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  86  71  85 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  64  90  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  70  87  72  86 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  64  92  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
OCF  66  90  69  90 /  10  20   0  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion