Amherst, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

010
FXUS64 KLUB 071724
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Isolated storms remain possible through this evening, mainly on
   the Caprock.
- Low storm chances continue Monday and Tuesday during the
   afternoon/evening hours.
- Warm and dry for the remainder of the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Generally light SE winds behind yesterday`s cold front will bring
pleasant temperatures today, topping out in the low-to-mid 80s with
partly sunny skies. The weak upslope SE flow combined with an
approaching upper shortwave will lead to at least some isolated
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening. Although the latest
CAMs are not unanimous with convective initiation, most forecast
soundings indicate an inverted-V with at least marginal skinny
SBCAPE peaking around 700 J/kg. Shear aloft is likely too weak to
fully counteract this, so with the decent CAPE/shear ratio, at least
some mentionable PoPs have been retained in the latest forecast,
mainly on the Caprock. In any case, severe weather is unlikely,
although any storms that do form could produce brief heavy downpours
and gusty winds. Another shortwave will pass over the region late
tonight into Monday morning. Although it will be a bit stronger than
this afternoon`s wave, it should not lead to much outside of some
building cloud cover and isolated showers over the far SW Panhandle.
However, this will keep morning lows moderated, generally in the low-
to-mid 60s. A ridge will build through the day Monday and surface
flow will switch due south. This will bring warmer temperatures,
with highs near 90 across much of the area. Some embedded shortwaves
will track across the far SE Panhandle during the afternoon/evening
hours, bringing another potential round of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to this area, particularly as flow will slightly back
to the SE more here. Again, severe weather is unlikely.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The aforementioned ridge in the previous section will continue to
build on Tuesday, bringing even warmer temperatures into the low-to-
mid 90s. Another embedded shortwave will move through in the
afternoon/evening. CAPE will be elevated and shear is unimpressive,
so like the previous days, any storms should remain isolated to
scattered at best, but still could produce brief periods of heavy
rain and gusty winds. The center of the 500 mb high will remain in
place over the entire area for Wednesday and Thursday, thus no PoPs
are expected then, and highs will remain slightly above average. A
broad upper trough will move into the Mountain West region on
Friday, however the high should prevent it from tracking too far
east and influencing our area. As such, Friday`s weather will be
similar to that of the previous two days with warm temperatures and
mostly sunny skies. The ridge will break down into next weekend,
potentially ushering in a more active pattern with the possibility
of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Will run with VFR conditions in the TAFs this cycle. Mid level cloud
cover slow to clear this morning but should stay solidly in VFR
category. Low level moisture return will bring some low clouds
northward through the Permian Basin toward sunrise Monday, but how
far north is the big question. Have trended toward the optimistic
side at this time, but this is something that will need to be
monitored. The other issue is a slight chance for TS mainly at KPVW
and KLBB. Isolated TS may develop on the higher terrain of
northeastern New Mexico with a small chance of it holding together
long enough to get near or to the terminals mid to late evening.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion