Amiret, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

192
FXUS63 KFSD 240335
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1035 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A persistent seasonally warm pattern will be in place through
  early next week with very small chances for precipitation.
- Patchy fog possible both Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
- A cool front will move into the area Friday but with the
  expected dry atmosphere, precipitation is not expected with
  the frontal passage.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep weak
northerly flow in place across the area into Wednesday. This will
keep surface high pressure and some weak northerly flow in place
during this time as well. Mainly dry conditions are expected but
some very weak diurnally driven instability close to I-29 late
afternoon/evening and a little elevated weak instability tonight
around southwest MN could bring some very isolated showers.
Otherwise with the lighter winds lows will once again be on the
lighter side from 50 to 55 degrees. Wednesday will be another
pleasant day with highs in the 70s.
Wednesday night into Thursday and upper level ridge will build from
the southwest which will allow for a lighter westerly wind at the
surface. This should support warming temperatures with highs more
from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
By Friday the area will be on the southern end of a strong wave
moving through southern Canada. This will bring a nice warm nose
into the area on Friday, pushing highs into the mid and possibly
upper 80s. As this wave passes to the north on Friday night cooler
air will work into the area, which should bring more seasonal
temperatures for Saturday. The cool front on the leading edge of
this cooler air should not provide the area with any precipitation
as soundings suggest the atmosphere is far too dry.
Upper level riding strengthen Sunday into early next week with some
troughing expected across the western high plains Monday night into
Tuesday. Highs during this time will be about 5-10 degrees above
normal. Will keep an eye on trends for this trough early next week
but for now the effects on the area will be pretty low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Can`t rule out a very isolated shower through the overnight
hours in southwestern MN; however, guidance has backed off on
this potential through the evening hours. Guidance has also been
backing off in the potential for patchy fog toward daybreak
Wednesday, and thus have removed the 5 SM TEMPO groups from KFSD
and KSUX - with guidance keeping fog/low stratus contained to
the James River Valley and the higher elevations near the
Buffalo Ridge.
Other than previously mentioned MVFR to possibly IFR fog/stratus,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Light and
somewhat variable winds continue. If there is prevailing
direction, expect it to be north to north-northeast.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG

NWS FSD Office Area Forecast Discussion