192 FXUS63 KFSD 240335 AFDFSDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1035 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A persistent seasonally warm pattern will be in place through early next week with very small chances for precipitation.
- Patchy fog possible both Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
- A cool front will move into the area Friday but with the expected dry atmosphere, precipitation is not expected with the frontal passage.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep weak northerly flow in place across the area into Wednesday. This will keep surface high pressure and some weak northerly flow in place during this time as well. Mainly dry conditions are expected but some very weak diurnally driven instability close to I-29 late afternoon/evening and a little elevated weak instability tonight around southwest MN could bring some very isolated showers. Otherwise with the lighter winds lows will once again be on the lighter side from 50 to 55 degrees. Wednesday will be another pleasant day with highs in the 70s.
Wednesday night into Thursday and upper level ridge will build from the southwest which will allow for a lighter westerly wind at the surface. This should support warming temperatures with highs more from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
By Friday the area will be on the southern end of a strong wave moving through southern Canada. This will bring a nice warm nose into the area on Friday, pushing highs into the mid and possibly upper 80s. As this wave passes to the north on Friday night cooler air will work into the area, which should bring more seasonal temperatures for Saturday. The cool front on the leading edge of this cooler air should not provide the area with any precipitation as soundings suggest the atmosphere is far too dry.
Upper level riding strengthen Sunday into early next week with some troughing expected across the western high plains Monday night into Tuesday. Highs during this time will be about 5-10 degrees above normal. Will keep an eye on trends for this trough early next week but for now the effects on the area will be pretty low.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Can`t rule out a very isolated shower through the overnight hours in southwestern MN; however, guidance has backed off on this potential through the evening hours. Guidance has also been backing off in the potential for patchy fog toward daybreak Wednesday, and thus have removed the 5 SM TEMPO groups from KFSD and KSUX - with guidance keeping fog/low stratus contained to the James River Valley and the higher elevations near the Buffalo Ridge.
Other than previously mentioned MVFR to possibly IFR fog/stratus, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Light and somewhat variable winds continue. If there is prevailing direction, expect it to be north to north-northeast.
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.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.
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DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...SG
NWS FSD Office Area Forecast Discussion