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Amiret, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

473
FXUS63 KFSD 241114
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 614 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Similar to the last few nights, areas of developing fog will persist mainly north of I-90 through mid-morning.

- A persistent seasonally warm pattern will be in place through early next week with very small chances for precipitation.

- Additional chances for patchy fog will be possible by Thursday morning mainly across the James River Valley and portions of northwestern IA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: The seasonally warm conditions continue! Taking a look across the area, a quiet night continue as temperatures continue their gradual descent into the low to mid 50s to start the morning. With dew points expected to be around the same with lighter surface winds, could see the development of some patchy fog mainly north of I-90. While some locally dense patches will be possible mainly in our River Valleys, should see most of the fog gradually erode just after daybreak as mixing resumes. From here, could see a few diurnally driven sprinkles develop along and east of I-29 as some weak lift rotates off the backside of a positively tilted trough centered over the Great Lakes region. Nonetheless, accumulations will be limited (if any). Otherwise, should see temperatures peak in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s during the day with a gradual descent into the low to mid 50s overnight. Lastly, lighter winds and lingering low-level moisture could lead to additional areas of fog developing overnight specifically along the James River Valley and portions of northwestern IA.

THURSDAY ONWARDS: Looking into the latter parts of the week, mid- level ridging moves in to reset our pattern aloft returning us to quasi-zonal flow aloft. Increasing subsidence with the predominantly ridging pattern aloft should help keep us mostly dry moving forward. Ensemble guidance seems to agree with this sentiment as both the GEFS and Euro only have 20-30 percent probabilities of 0.10" of an inch of QPF or greater through about October 1st. Nonetheless, cold fronts will pass through the area on Friday and again on Tuesday with the better "chances" for accumulating precipitation between Tuesday and Wednesday. Lastly, we`ll likely continue to see temperatures hover in the 70s and 80s into early parts of October.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Mostly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR/IFR vsbys will be possible this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, a few pockets of MVFR to IFR fog have developed north of I-90. While these conditions will likely persist through daybreak, should vsbys gradually improve by mid-morning (9am-10am). Otherwise, could additional pockets of fog develop tonight mainly across the James River Valley and portions of northwestern IA. Lastly, light and variable winds will continue for the majority of the day to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05

NWS FSD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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