Amsterdam, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

617
FXUS65 KTFX 261447
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
847 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quick moving cool front will move from west to east across the
  CWA this morning, bringing in a bit cooler temperatures for
  this afternoon.
- Dry and quiet weather conditions continue through Sunday
  morning, before the chances for showers and thunderstorms
  increase over Southwest MT on Sunday afternoon.
- Expect above normal temperatures early next week, with cooler
  temperatures by late next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Gusty northwesterly winds and dry conditions over central/north-
central MT will be the primary concern today, though wind speeds
should decrease some this afternoon. The cold front responsible
for the winds also brought some haze and smoke from ongoing
wildfires west of the divide. The primary forecast update was to
increase winds and add the mention of patchy smoke/haze. - RCG
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 359 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Quiet weather conditions overnight will give way to a fast moving
cool front that will move from west to east across the CWA this
morning. The main effect from this front will be for one day of
cooler temperatures this afternoon, and a short period of
increased smoke as the front moves through. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected across the CWA through Sunday morning.
The flow aloft will shift to a more southwesterly flow on Sunday,
as a strong area of low pressure develops off the coast of
Washington state. This will allow for scattered
showers/thunderstorms to develop over Southwest MT on Sunday
afternoon, and then gradually spread northward Sunday night into
Wednesday. Overall, no severe storms are expected, but a few
storms could produce some gusty winds or brief heavy rainfall.
This will be a slow moving upper level trof that moves from west
to east across the CWA early next week, with temperatures not
cooling off until about Wednesday.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main weather concern will start on Sunday afternoon with
showers/thunderstorms over Southwest MT. This chance for
showers/thunderstorms will increase daily through Wednesday.
Overall, most areas will have light precipitation, there is about
a 20 percent chance that some areas could receive brief heavy
rainfall.
In terms of temperatures, above normal temperatures are expected
most day through Tuesday, before temperatures return back closer
to seasonal normals for late next week. Brusda
&&
.AVIATION...
26/12Z TAF Period.
VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA through the period.
However, do a Pacific front will move from west to east across the
CWA this morning, with a slight wind shift at the surface to the
northwest over North Central MT. Some smoke will also drift across
the CWA this morning with the frontal boundary, reducing distant
visibility at times. Expect a band of mid/high level clouds this
morning, along with breezy winds this afternoon. Skies clear out
and winds diminish early this evening. Mountains/passes could be
obscured at times through this afternoon by smoke. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  68  43  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  72  41  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  73  37  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  69  29  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  71  36  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  70  42  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  69  42  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion