Animas, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

206
FXUS64 KEPZ 071855
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1255 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1157 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Rapid warm up starts Monday as dry air continues to filter into the
  area. Warmer than average temperatures through the work week.
- Isolated storms possible over the area mountains each afternoon through
  Tuesday, dry elsewhere.
- Moisture returns Wednesday and beyond for chances of isolated
  thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
UL high pressure will continue to spin to south of the Int`l Border,
gradually retrograding across NW Mexico and back to the Pacific.
Much drier air is filtering over the area and is getting shunted to
the south. Today will be much less active with regards to
thunderstorms. Very little to no storm activity expected today, best
chances will be a shower over the area mountains and NM bootheel.
Continued dry conditions will persist through Tuesday with little
coverage for storms. Best chances for a shower or storm will be in
the area mountains. In addition, Tuesday looks quite warm as high
pressure influences the area. Temperatures stay fairly warm
Wednesday and Thursday (still above normal for this time of year)
due to the influence of the high. However, a large cutoff low over
the PacNW will progress slowly eastward and will dig as it does so.
High pressure gets shunted over central TX which will leave us
sandwiched between the low and the high allowing for a monsoonal
surge of moisture, but looks to be confined to areas west of the Rio
Grande. This area will have the best shot for storms Wednesday and
Thursday. As this low moves eastward, this could push the plume
eastward over the remaining areas, bringing storm chances elsewhere
heading into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with FEW100 this
afternoon with FEW250 possible throughout the period. Winds remain
light AOB 10KT through the next 24HRs with no chances for rain at
any terminals today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Low fire danger the next week ahead as min RH values stay above
critical thresholds and wind speeds remain light each afternoon.
Min RH values will range from 17-25% across the lowlands and
30-45% in the area mountains through the work week and weekend.
20 foot wind speeds will generally be 5-10 mph each afternoon
becoming light overnight. Monday and Tuesday will remain fairly
dry with the best shot for a storm or shower being in the area
mountains. By Wednesday, storm chances increase a bit to allow
isolated storms, potentially even scattered coverage Wednesday
from the NM Bootheel upwards to the Gila region that afternoon.
Continued storm chances persist Thursday and through the weekend.
Looks like generally low end chances each day, not expecting any
widespread storms or flash flooding anytime soon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  96  72  97 /   0  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  89  61  91 /   0  10   0   0
Las Cruces               64  92  65  92 /   0  10   0   0
Alamogordo               65  92  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  69  50  71 /   0  20   0  10
Truth or Consequences    65  91  65  91 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City              60  86  60  86 /   0  10   0  10
Deming                   64  94  65  95 /   0  10   0   0
Lordsburg                65  91  65  91 /   0  10   0  10
West El Paso Metro       71  93  71  94 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City                63  93  64  94 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             67  94  68  96 /   0  10   0   0
Loma Linda               63  86  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                   67  94  68  95 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             67  92  67  93 /   0  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  93  69  94 /   0  10   0   0
Jornada Range            65  92  65  93 /   0  10   0   0
Hatch                    64  94  65  95 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 66  94  67  94 /   0  10   0   0
Orogrande                63  91  64  91 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                  53  81  55  81 /   0  20   0  10
Mescalero                53  81  55  82 /   0  20   0  10
Timberon                 51  79  52  80 /   0  10   0  10
Winston                  53  84  55  84 /   0  10   0  10
Hillsboro                62  92  62  92 /   0  10   0  10
Spaceport                62  91  63  91 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             53  86  55  86 /   0  10   0  10
Hurley                   60  88  60  89 /   0  10   0  10
Cliff                    62  92  62  92 /   0  10   0  10
Mule Creek               59  88  60  88 /   0  10   0  10
Faywood                  62  88  62  89 /  10  10   0  10
Animas                   65  92  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
Hachita                  63  91  64  91 /   0  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           63  90  64  91 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale               61  86  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion