Anthony, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

498
FXUS64 KEPZ 201138
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
538 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms areawide
   Friday afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of heavy
   rain and flooding.
- Drier and warmer weather this weekend into next week. Rain
   chances more limited to area mountains.
- Lowland highs in the lower nineties next week, warmer than
   normal for late September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Very little, if any deviation from previous forecast packages with
pleasant weather conditions through the weekend as drier air filters
in from the northwest. For next week, uncertainty remains in the
forecast with uncertainty in run to run model guidance.
By this weekend, upper level high pressure to our south will begin
to move west and focus itself over Sonora and Baja. This
corresponding clockwise flow around said upper level high will
advect drier air across the Desert SW. Moisture values and rain
chances will slowly decrease starting on Saturday. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible on Saturday as residual
moisture remains in place, generally focusing over the high
terrain. DP temps will fall back into the 40s with PW values below
1.0" on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are expected areawide,
though an isolated storm remains possible over the Gila and
Sacramento Mountains.
By early next week, ensemble guidance and their respected
deterministic solutions continue to diverge with each subsequent
run. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all lock in on closed low off the
coast of CA over the Pacific. Differences arise with regard to
positioning, track, timing, and associated moisture advection. Each
of the three models and their respected ensemble suites diverge in
their evolution as this closed off low moves onshore. The key thing
will be the amplitude and positioning of an upper level ridge
downstream of this upper low, and guidance just isn`t doing that
great of a job deciphering these features. That being said, with
such discrepancy between guidance, confidence remains low with
regard to the forecast next week. Daily chances of showers and
storms will remain at play each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Much clearer and quieter conditions in store for today. Expect
isolated thunderstorms that initiates over the area mountains
around 18Z with some isolated storms pushing southeast later in
the afternoon. Too much uncertainty if a terminal will see a storm
today but seems like all terminals are fair game, with lesser
chances for KELP. Soon after 00Z tonight, all activity should
cease. Winds remain light outside of thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Low fire danger the next week ahead as min RH values stay above
critical thresholds each afternoon. Lowland min RHs will be 30-40%
today but will decrease to 20-30% through the remainder of the
week. Area mountain afternoon RHs will be 30-50%. 20 foot winds
will be 5-10 mph each afternoon becoming calm overnight. Low end
thunderstorm chances will be seen today and tomorrow at least.
Models continue to have quite a bit of disagreement as to what
will happen into the work week. One model has good rain chances
while the other shows a much drier solution.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  70  94  71 /   0  10   0  10
Sierra Blanca            86  62  89  62 /  20  10  10   0
Las Cruces               86  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
Alamogordo               86  63  89  64 /  10  10   0  10
Cloudcroft               65  47  67  49 /  20  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    85  62  88  64 /  10  10   0  10
Silver City              81  56  83  59 /  10   0  10  10
Deming                   90  62  92  65 /  10   0   0  10
Lordsburg                86  63  87  64 /  10   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       89  69  92  70 /   0  10   0  10
Dell City                89  62  92  63 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             91  68  94  68 /  20  10   0  10
Loma Linda               81  62  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
Fabens                   89  66  93  67 /  10  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             87  64  90  67 /   0  10   0  10
White Sands HQ           87  66  90  67 /  10  10   0  10
Jornada Range            86  62  89  64 /  10  10   0  10
Hatch                    89  62  92  64 /  10  10   0  10
Columbus                 89  64  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                84  61  88  63 /  10  10   0  10
Mayhill                  77  53  79  54 /  30   0  10  10
Mescalero                77  51  79  53 /  20  10   0  10
Timberon                 74  51  76  52 /  20  10   0  10
Winston                  79  50  82  52 /  10  10  10  10
Hillsboro                86  59  89  61 /  10  10  10  10
Spaceport                84  59  88  61 /  10  10   0  10
Lake Roberts             81  50  83  52 /  10   0  10  20
Hurley                   84  58  86  60 /  10   0  10  10
Cliff                    87  59  89  60 /  10   0  10  10
Mule Creek               84  56  84  58 /  10   0  10  20
Faywood                  84  59  85  60 /  10   0  10  10
Animas                   87  64  89  64 /  10  10  10  10
Hachita                  86  62  88  63 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           87  63  89  63 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               83  62  84  62 /  20  10  20  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion