Antioch, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

493
FXUS62 KCAE 260020
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
820 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers possible overnight tonight with more showers
and storms Friday as a cold front approaches the area. The
chance of rain persists into the weekend and early next week
with lower temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- Isolated shower activity could continue overnight and into
  Friday morning with approaching cold front.
The upper trough continues to near the region this evening with
it now in the Tennessee Valley, extending down toward the
western Gulf Coast. The surface cold front is approaching the
Appalachians from the west, extending south toward the AL/GA
border. This set up has brought nearly uniform southwesterly
flow to the area with PWAT`s now reaching toward 2" per RAP
mesoanalysis. A weak MCV is noted moving out of eastern GA
toward the northeast, just north of the northern tier of
counties in the FA, and the bulk of any convection is now
located north of this feature and into the upstate of SC, closer
to the front. Moving through the remainder of the evening and
overnight, the front will creep slowly closer to the FA, likely
reaching the western Midlands/northern CSRA Friday morning. CAMs
keep the area toward the dry side overnight, but continued
moisture advection ahead of the front could spark isolated
showers into Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected Friday and Saturday as a cold front approaches the region.
- The clouds and rain should result in temperatures closer to
seasonal values, especially on Saturday.
Guidance remains consistent regarding the overall synoptic pattern
for the short term. A weakening upper trough to our west will slowly
move eastward towards the FA, possibly developing into a cutoff low.
Regardless of the development, this feature should be draped along
the Appalachian Mountains by daybreak Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front will slowly approach the region on Friday and will likely
linger nearby on Saturday, keeping rain in the forecast. There will
be ample moisture in place on Friday, with PWATs around 2 inches,
which will combine with upper level support and result in the
redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon hours,
if not sooner. Despite the recent lack of rainfall, there is a
concern for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
from any training thunderstorms that develop. The Day 2 WPC ERO
places the entire CWA in a Marginal (1/4) risk for excessive
rainfall. The rain threat on Saturday will be dependent on where the
front is located. Latest guidance suggests there will be some
improvement across the western CWA on Saturday, with the heaviest
rain falling across the Pee Dee region. NBM rainfall amounts are
mostly in the half inch to an inch range by the end of the period,
with higher amounts between 1 and 2 inches mainly from Columbia and
points to the north and east. The Day 3 WPC ERO highlights locations
along and north/east of I-26 which is in line with the NBM. The
clouds and rain will result in lower daytime temperatures,
especially on Saturday when highs should be near to perhaps slightly
below seasonal values.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Highly uncertain forecast during the extended that will be
dependent on Invest 94L, currently near Hispaniola, and what, if
any, impact it will have on the forecast area.
Attention in the extended shifts to Invest 94L, which is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone near The Bahamas this weekend. The
large scale setup is challenging as we move into early next week as
it remains unclear how this system will interact with the upper
trough to its west and Humberto to its east. Many members of the
model guidance show this system at least nearing the coast of the
Southeastern US, with potential impacts arriving as early as Sunday
night. However, until an area of low pressure develops from 94L,
model guidance will likely continue to struggle with its future
track and intensity. At this point, the best advice is to stay
posted for future updates and make sure to have your preparedness
plans in place in the event this system threatens the forecast area.
Given the unsettled pattern, daytime temperatures should be near to
slightly below seasonal values, with the potential for a cool, dry
air mass arriving during the mid to late week period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected this evening then possible restrictions
in fog/stratus Friday morning.
Convection has diminished for the evening with mainly widespread
high clouds and some scattered mid level clouds remaining. A
weak cold front will approach from the west late tonight but
likely to remain just west of the terminals by 12z. Most
guidance is suggesting MVFR/IFR restrictions behind the front
but confidence is low that it reaches the terminals although it
is still possible to reach DNL/AGS around sunrise. Abundant low
level moisture should support possible MVFR stratocumulus after
sunrise and have included a tempo for MVFR cigs all terminals
12z-16z time frame. There is another 20 know low level jet so
that should limit fog potential but guidance is suggesting AGS
will see some restrictions in fog similar to last night so
included a tempo group for that as well. The frontal boundary is
expected to slowly move through the Midlands on Friday and be a
focus for convection later in the afternoon toward the end of
the forecast period. Included a PROB30 to account for possible
afternoon convection. Winds should pick up from the west at
around 5 to 7 knots after 16z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place this
weekend leading to likely rain chances and possible widespread
restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion