Anton Chico, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

654
FXUS65 KABQ 152343 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy rainfall will return to southern, central, and eastern
  parts of New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday, then continue east
  of the central mountain chain Wednesday night.
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible east of
  the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon and evening, then
  scattered severe thunderstorms are increasingly likely across
  far northeast New Mexico Wednesday afternoon and evening with
  some producing locally heavy rainfall.
- There will be a minor risk of burn scar flash flooding on
  Tuesday and a minor to moderate risk on Wednesday. The threat
  for burn scar flash flooding may persist Thursday and Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Another quiet day prevails across northern and central NM as dry
westerly winds prevail over the state. However, low level moisture
is creeping north from southern NM and that trend is forecast to
continue through Tuesday night, bringing PWATs back above normal
for most areas. As a result, we`re expecting a notable uptick in
coverage of convection Tuesday afternoon/evening except for across
northwest NM where a relatively dry atmosphere will persist.
Storm motion will be strongest across northern NM Tuesday as
westerly winds aloft trend up in advance of a slowly approaching
upper level trough/low, currently moving east from over the Great
Basin. Storm motion across southern NM will be light Tuesday,
brining at least a minor risk for burn scar flash flooding to the
Ruidoso area. Shear and instability will be sufficient to support
a few strong storms across northeast NM Tuesday/afternoon, with
low probabilities for pulse-severe type storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Wednesday is still looking active, especially across northeast NM
where 0-6km bulk shear will approach 50kts and sbCAPE values will
approach 2000J/kg. The 12Z NAM isn`t as bullish as previous runs
with the southward progression of the backdoor front and holds it
up in CO through 03Z Thursday, whereas the 12Z GFS brings it into
far northeast NM between 21-00Z. This boundary is a key ingredient
for forcing convection late Wednesday and will be associated with
a risk for severe storms. The backdoor front will progress
southwest to the central mountain chain Wednesday night and set
the stage for Thursday, which is trending increasingly active.
Thursday will likely be the highest threat day for burn scar flash
flooding in the Ruidoso area with an above normal PWAT atmosphere
persisting over much of southern and eastern NM.
The forecast for the weekend and into early next week is more
uncertain with the 12Z medium range model solutions showing little
agreement and changing from run-to-run. For now, we`ll trend PoPs
down and high temperatures up with the idea of a building ridge
late in the weekend and into early next week. However, if the 12Z
GFS works out, then the weekend may be more unsettled with higher
PWATs and a Pacific low on approach.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Isolated SHRA/TS over far southeast NM and the Gila region will
dissipate after sunset. Low level moisture will begin trickling
northward tonight with very low chances for patchy fog and low
cloud development over eastern NM. The area around Clayton has a

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion