Apache, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

163
FXUS64 KOUN 231810
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
110 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening with
   the highest risk across southeast Oklahoma.
- Rain chances with a few embedded storms will continue tonight
   into Wednesday all ending by Wednesday evening.
- Northwest winds behind a cold front will bring in an
   unseasonably cooler and drier air mass across our area for
   Wednesday through Thursday with mild days and cool nights.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
There is a risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the
evening hours with the highest risk area across southeast Oklahoma.
A positively tilted upper trough remains in place with the upper low
over the Colorado Rockies and troughing extending across the Central
through Southern Plains Regions.  A cold front from another system
over the Upper Midwest Region was stretched across the Central U.S.
through northwest Oklahoma as a weak surface low had developed
across our area.  The surface low & cold front currently stretched
across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push south and east
through our area which may reach near the I-44 corridor by mid-
afternoon. Diurnal heating will continue to destabilize the
warm/moist sector ahead of the front where surface dewpoints are in
the lower to mid 70s.  Will expect to see convection initiating
along and ahead of the surface front by peak afternoon heating.
Latest RAP & NAM guidance expecting strong instability in the warm
sector with up to 3,000-4,000 J/kg of SBCAPE.  Strong 850 mb
southwesterly flow veering to a strengthening westerly upper jet
will be increasing the deep-layer shear as well.
As result could see a potential for supercell formation in the risk
area capable of producing large golf ball size hail & damaging 70
mph wind gust hazards.  Although the tornado risk will be higher
further in eastern Oklahoma, can`t completely rule out a low risk
for a tornado in our far southeastern CWA.  Southeast Oklahoma could
also see heavy rainfall with a potential of localized flooding under
some of these storms in association with a band of high PW values in
excess of 2-inches.  The severe risk will continue into the evening
hours as the cold front continues pushing into southeast Oklahoma.
Cooler air behind the front will be filtering into northwest with
temperatures falling into the upper 50s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Our main upper trough finally starts digging through on Wednesday
while post-frontal down at the surface with northwest winds.  A
series of vortmax`s along the troughs axis enhanced by the upper jet
maxima may bring our final round of mostly scattered rain with a few
embedded elevated thunderstorms.  Although shear may remain strong
due to the upper jet flow, instability will be weakening keeping any
convection well below severe.  By Wednesday afternoon low POPs will
be restricted only to northcentral through portions of central
Oklahoma and completely ending by the evening.  A cooler and drier
air mass coming in off the Central High Plains will result in a two-
day trend of below normal temperatures through the short term.  Will
see mild afternoon MaxTs in the 70s to lower 80s (south) to lows in
the 50s starting Wednesday night as we remain under the trough.
Thursday night may be the cooler of two nights as high surface
pressure builds in under clear night skies and calm winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Upper ridging will build into the area from the west Friday into the
weekend, leading to fairly pleasant conditions with slowly
moderating temperatures, light south or southeast winds, and a
continuation of dry conditions over the region. High will climb into
the mid 80s by Saturday and Sunday, with some readings near 90
possible across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Cold front and sfc low will continue to move across the area this
afternoon/evening causing winds to shift towards the north.
Showers/storms will be possible near and ahead of the front this
afternoon and evening with highest chances in parts of southern OK
and western north TX. Rain chances will continue overnight along
the Red River and then also in northern OK with wrap-around
precipitation possible. Ceilings will be variable ranging from IFR
to MVFR/VFR this TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  77  58  78 /  10  20   0   0
Hobart OK         63  79  56  82 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  82  59  82 /  50  20   0   0
Gage OK           58  73  52  79 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     62  74  56  79 /  10  30  10   0
Durant OK         69  81  62  81 /  80  30   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion