Arcola, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

033
FXUS63 KILX 041732
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- South winds gusting to 20-30 mph both Saturday and Sunday will
  combine with low RH values (25-35%) to increase fire danger.
  Burning is discouraged and caution is urged with outdoor
  equipment. Localized visibility limitations may occur with
  blowing dust from harvesting activities mixed with the stronger
  wind gusts.
- Scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday will result in
  a 40-60% chance of a wetting rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
High pressure drifts off to the east this weekend, and a low
pressure is developing over the Rockies. The pressure gradient will
tighten over the region as we sit in between the two systems,
increasing winds today and tomorrow. The strongest winds will remain
off to the west/northwest of central IL. However, the HREF shows a
40-70% chance of gusts greater than 20 mph today, mainly west of I-
55. Sunday looks to be the windier day, with a 30-60% chance of wind
gusts greater than 30 mph west of the Illinois River Valley in the
morning. Wind gusts around 20-25 mph areawide the whole day. These
higher wind gusts could cause some blowing dust, limiting
visibilities locally, where fields are being harvested.
Increased fire danger is expected over the weekend due to these
breezier winds and the dry state of the environment. RH values look
to bottom out around 25-35% both days. The SPC has north of I-72
outlooked on day 2 of the Fire Weather outlook for enhanced fire
danger. Use caution with anything that could ignite a fire and be
mindful of the burn bans already in place. Burning is highly
discouraged both Saturday and Sunday.
That low pressure developing over the Rockies will drift
northwesterly through the weekend. It will drag along a cold front
that will move through the forecast area Monday into Tuesday. This
cold front will bring chances for rain and cooler temperatures.
Currently, there is a widespread 50-70% chance for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts are not expected to
be drought busting. The LREF is showing a 40-60% chance that
rainfall amounts exceed 0.25 inch areawide, and a 20-40% chance of
exceeding 0.5 inch east of I-57.
Highs will continue to be in the upper 80s to near 90 the next few
days. Closer to normal temperatures are on the horizon. Normal for
this time of the year is in the low 70s for highs. Behind the cold
front late Tuesday, temperatures will cool into the 70s for highs
for the rest of the week. Wednesday still looks to be the coolest
day we have seen in quite awhile, with highs in the low 70s and lows
in the 40s. The LREF is showing a 50-70% chance of highs less than
70 degrees Wednesday. Temperatures appear to warm back up into the
upper 70s by late week.
Copple
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Diurnal Cu field at around 5000ft has begun to develop
along/southeast of a KTIP to KTAZ line early this afternoon...and
these clouds will gradually develop a bit further northwestward
over the next couple of hours. Have included FEW-SCT Cu at all
terminals except KPIA accordingly. The clouds will dissipate prior
to sunset, followed by clear skies through midday Sunday. Winds
will be S/SW at around 10kt this afternoon, then will increase and
become gustier on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens. 12z
forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts of 20kt or
greater...especially along/west of I-55 from late Sunday morning
through the afternoon.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion