Argus, California Weather Forecast Discussion

783
FXUS65 KVEF 281116
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
416 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue today
  for southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern
  Arizona.
* A low pressure system will bring breezy winds and drier air to
  the region as it approaches the region on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through next Saturday.
Current radar and satellite imagery shows isolated showers and
thunderstorms circulating around a low in northwestern Arizona,
southern Nevada, and southeastern California. These storms will
continue to circulate around the low through the early morning
hours, but will be less intense than storms that occurred on
Saturday afternoon. As this low slowly pushes east throughout the
day it will continue to help fuel isolated showers and
thunderstorms across southern Nevada, southeastern California,
and northwestern Arizona this afternoon. Hazards will be similar
to the past few days, with moderate-to-heavy rain, flash flooding,
strong outflow winds, small hail, and frequent lightning will be
hazards with any storms that develop. Storms will tend to favor
areas of higher terrain for development and will dissipate with
the loss of daytime heating after sunset.
An uppper-level trough approaching the West Coast will help the low
responsible for this weekend`s unsettled weather clear out of the
region on Monday. This trough will also bring breezy winds to the
area as well as drier southwesterly flow aloft, which will help
to slowly scour moisture from the area early next week.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the week as
troughiness persists across the Western US. Meanwhile, Tropical
Storm Narda will continue to slowly meander north, weakening as
she moves into cooler waters. Eventually, we will see moisture
from the remnants of Narda get advected into southern California
with some portions of our forecast area seeing a relative increase
in moisture during the latter half of the week. This relative
increase in moisture looks to be short-lived as another system
looks to flush the moisture out as it rolls through the area.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...Lingering vicinity showers will keep winds light and
either easterly or variable in direction through the morning. With
the upper-level low moving away, expecting afternoon convection to
be weak, isolated, and terrain-focused. Latest guidance suggests
only a ~20% chance of storms in the Vegas Valley, thus opted to
remove any mention of TS from the TAF. Additionally, the potential
for gusty outflow winds appears diminished compared to previous
days. Barring any convective influences, expecting light winds that
largely follow typical, daily patterns. Scattered to broken clouds
at or above 10kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers
continue to linger across Mohave and Clark counties this morning.
Best chances for afternoon thunderstorms exist in the southern Great
Basin, Sierra, and eastern Mohave County. Gusty, erratic winds are
likely near any storms. Elsewhere, expecting either dry conditions
or isolated showers. Outside of any convective influences, most
locations will see light winds that follow typical, daily patterns.
The exception to this is the Owens Valley where 15-25 knot southerly
gusts are forecast this afternoon. Scattered to broken clouds at or
above 10kft.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Woods
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion