Augusta, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

409
FXUS65 KTFX 212043
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
243 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight.
- A cooler, but seasonable day expected on Monday.
- It turns dry and warm from Tuesday into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
- Meteorological Overview:
A Pacific cold front is approaching the Rocky Mountain Front
currently. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
ahead and along the cold front. The cold front will move eastward
across the CWA this evening and overnight tonight. There will be a
few stronger storms, with the main impact being gusty winds. By
Monday morning, snow levels will fall down to about 8000 or 9000
feet, with a rain/snow mix possible at ridge tops. For Monday,
afternoon temperatures will be cooler than they have been, but
still close to seasonal normals. The cool air will not last long,
as warmer air moves back into the CWA on Tuesday. By Wednesday,
afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees, which
will be about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.
The above normal temperatures, will continue into next weekend,
just not as hot as the mid week temperatures though.
This system will be rather quick moving, and there will only be a
few lingering showers on Monday morning, especially over the
central mountains, otherwise dry conditions are expected until
late next weekend.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
An isolated strong wind gust is possible with the thunderstorms
tonight, but the threat/possibility for any severe storms is quite
low. Most areas will see rainfall less than 0.20 inches, but an
isolated stronger storm could produce near a half inch of
rainfall.
After this system exits the region on Monday morning, the chance
for rainfall is almost near zero until late next weekend. Even the
system for late next weekend only has very low chances for precip
at this time.
Afternoon temperatures for Wednesday continue to increase as well.
Thus some areas will once again approach 90 degrees for afternoon
high temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
21/18Z TAF Period.
North-Central Montana (KCTB, KHVR): Strong westerly winds with
gusts up to 40kts are possible through 22/06Z at KCTB. Breezy
conditions are expected at KHVR with gusts up to 30kts possible.
KCTB will generally remain dry through the period but KHVR will
have a period between 22/00Z and 22/10Z where isolated showers are
expected to make their way across portions of the Hi-Line. Towards
the end of the period, low clouds will move across the Hi-Line
bringing low-VFR CIGS to the region with a potential for short
periods of high-MVFR conditions.
Central Montana (KGTF, KHLN, KLWT): VFR conditions are expected
through the first 6 hours of the period with increasing cloud
cover ahead of showers and thunderstorms making their way into
central Montana by 22/00Z. Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible around
heavier showers with mountain obscuration remaining a concern
through most of the period. Shower activity will diminish for KGTF
and KHLN after 22/06Z but will continue on and off around KLWT
through the remainder of the period as showers move further into
central and eastern Montana.
Breezy west/northwest winds will impact KGTF and KHLN this
afternoon with additional gusty and erratic winds expected for all
terminals around thunderstorms. After the winds start to
diminish, low clouds will move into the region bringing low-VFR to
high-MVFR CIGS through the rest of the period.
Southwest Montana (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS): Showers and thunderstorms
will start to develop this afternoon and become more widespread
through the overnight hours. Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible
under heavier showers with mountain obscuration remaining a
concern through most of the period. Breezy south/southwest winds
are expected at KEKS through at least 22/06Z with gusty, erratic
winds expected at all terminals this afternoon around
thunderstorms. -thor
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  67  42  77 /  70  10   0   0
CTB  45  67  37  78 /  30  20   0   0
HLN  46  66  40  76 /  70  10   0   0
BZN  44  62  35  71 /  90  30   0   0
WYS  36  56  24  67 /  90  60   0   0
DLN  41  61  33  70 /  90  10   0   0
HVR  49  67  40  78 /  60  20   0   0
LWT  46  59  39  74 /  80  30   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion