Avant, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

079
FXUS64 KTSA 072223
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Dry conditions are favored through the week, with only a slight
   chance of rain in parts of NE OK Monday night/Tuesday.
- Temperatures warm back to near or slightly above average by mid to
   late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Quiet conditions are likely across E OK and NW AR today and tonight
under the influence of sfc high pressure. High clouds within the NW
flow will continue to stream into the area, but plenty of sunshine
is expected this afternoon. Combined with light winds, another
pleasantly cool September day is in store for the region with highs
in the lower 80s and overnight temps in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2025
Overall, the extended forecast looks to remain mostly uneventful,
though recent guidance has slightly ticked up precip potential for
parts of NE OK Monday into Tuesday. The upper air pattern through
mid week features ridging across the southwestern states and N
Mexico, and troughing over the eastern US. This will maintain NW
flow aloft for the central and southern Plains. High pressure will
gradually shift east over the next couple of days, allowing for the
return of low level southerly flow and increasing moisture. A subtle
wave embedded within the NW flow is forecast to navigate into the
plains Monday into Tuesday.
Latest CAMs suggest convection will be impacting portions of S KS
during the day Monday... mostly dissipating as it nears the
increasingly stable airmass over our CWA. Some showers or weak
storms cannot be ruled out over far NW parts of the FA tomorrow
afternoon/ evening, but will keep PoPs just below mentionable at
this time. As the wave remains in the vicinity and mid-level
moisture expands into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning,
isolated to scattered convection will be possible along the moist
axis extending into NE OK. Most ensemble members suggest QPF will
remain light, with CAMs indicating spotty coverage... though low
PoPs were expanded slightly to account for this potential. Some
guidance suggests periodic additional low rain and storm potential
through mid week (mainly in NE OK), but overall, predominantly dry
conditions are expected at this time given the increasing influence
from upper level ridging. Temperatures gradually warm back to near
or slightly above average by mid-late week... generally in the 80s/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all sites, with
largely mid and high clouds expected. Southerly winds will
increase late morning tomorrow at the NE OK terminals in response
to a disturbance moving through the Central Plains. Expect gusts
through the afternoon from 15 to 20 kts. The gusts may drop off
during the last couple of hours of the TAF period but will not
include a separate FM group showing that just yet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  81  61  81 /   0  10  20  10
FSM   59  83  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   57  81  58  82 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   54  80  58  81 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   51  81  55  82 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   52  80  54  83 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   57  81  59  81 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   56  81  58  81 /   0  10  10  10
F10   57  81  58  81 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   58  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion