Backoo, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

958
FXUS63 KFGF 201922
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
222 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms along and east of the Red
  River tonight, continuing in northwest Minnesota through
  Sunday. Impacts will be isolated lightning this evening with
  another tenth to quarter inch of rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Fairly wrapped up upper low rotating over the Manitoba/North
Dakota border currently will drift very slowly into the Red
River Valley overnight. The weak surface low currently over the
central RRV will move into northern MN. Most of the activity
with the low has been showers, but will have to watch if any
stronger cells develop enough to produce lightning with SPC meso
page showing around 1000 J/kg. Any CAPE will quickly dissipate
after sunset, with the lingering showers following the low into
MN. Cloud cover will continue for much of the night, but with
low dew point depressions and light winds can`t rule out some
fog forming under the mess of the upper low. HREF probabilities
have up to 40 percent chance for under half a mile visibility in
some spots, so will continue to monitor as we head into the
overnight but just have a mention of patchy fog in the grids for
now.
The upper low will continue to push slowly east through tomorrow
and tomorrow night, with scattered showers remaining in our MN
counties. By Monday, the main upper circulation will be out over
the Great Lakes and we should see showers dry out. The drier
pattern will continue into the work week with a blocky ridge
from the Rockies into the Northern Plains and the main cut off
upper circulations expected to stay to the south and east of our
CWA. ECMWF EFI has the wet signal for this weekend ending and a
warming trend expected in the ensembles. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages with highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s through the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
MVFR to IFR ceilings across most of the forecast area as showers
and a few thunderstorms develop along and east of the Red River.
Have shower/t-storm mention for all but KDVL, tapering off by
late evening. Some improvement in conditions possible for a
period this evening, but then back to IFR ceilings and some fog
isn`t out of the question. For now, kept vis at 1SM for the
lowest and will see how fog develops overnight. Some improvement
to MVFR or even VFR by the end of the period. Winds will remain
light and variable.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion