Bacova Junction, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

086
FXUS61 KRNK 211050
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
650 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves back in to the forecast area today, as the
cold front from Saturday will retreat north. Sunday morning will
feature some areas of valley fog and low clouds. After sunrise
expect clouds to lift and clear. Rain is expected to arrive
later this week as a cutoff low moves east out of the plains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
1) Sunday returns to quiet weather across southwest VA
2) Temperatures cool down several degrees for Sunday afternoon
A weak zone of convergence has persisted through the night near
Lynchburg, and is still even forcing lightning producing
convection. Still expecting this to totally dissipate before
sunrise.
A weak wedge remains against the mountains Sunday morning,
which will encourage some patches of fog and low clouds. After
sunrise, the clouds will begin to lift and clear throughout the
day Sunday as high pressure again fills in and replaces a nearly
stationary front. Accordingly, this high pressure will suppress
and nearly eliminate rain chances on Sunday. Temperatures on
Sunday will be several degrees cooler than Saturday, with highs
in the Piedmont in the upper 70s to low 80s, and the mountains
ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
Key Messages:
1) Cutoff low beings to approach the Mid-Atlantic.
2) Multiple chances of precipitation next week.
A large upper level cutoff low pressure system starts to move
east from the Great Plains. The cutoff low will move slowly and
will likely not reach our vicinity until late next week. As it
tracks east it will join with another cutoff low which is
further north nearer the Canadian border.
As the cutoff low approaches, it will direct several
perturbations into the Mid-Atlantic and provide a chance of
precipitation every afternoon for the first half of next week.
500mb winds will be somewhat westerly, if not barely
southwesterly, so many storms will likely be upslope based. The
remnant higher pressure prevents higher precipitation chances
for most of the region so the greatest likelihood (30-50%) will
be toward the more western and mountainous counties. Rain
chances drop significantly east of the Blue Ridge. PWATs are
projected to be unusually high for this time of year with values
as high as 1.0-1.5" (75th-90th percentile range). Some of these
showers and thunderstorms could be relatively efficient in
producing heavy rain, but given dry/drought conditions, this may
not be a bad thing (assuming there is no training of heavy
showers over the same area). Otherwise, cloud cover will likely
return for most of the area and temperatures may remain a little
warmer than average with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s
and lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...
Key Message:
1) Cutoff low to slowly approach the east coast and add challenges
to the forecast.
Small changes in the forecast track can have large impacts on
almost every facet of weather from precipitation chances, amount
and intensity of rain to humidity and temperatures. There is
consensus that a cutoff low will continue it make its way
across the CONUS and head eastward. A north- south oriented
cold front linked to the cutoff low will move eastward with it.
The cutoff low`s movement is currently expected to be very slow
and its center may not even reach our vicinity by the end of
the forecast period. It is possible that warm and moist air
will build up in the area as we remain in the warm sector of the
frontal system just to our west. Surface conditions will get
considerably humid with dew points potentially reaching 70F for
areas east of the Blue Ridge. However, given the high
uncertainty on how the cutoff low acts late into next week,
there is low confidence in the impacts from what looks to be the
next important system to come to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...
The weak remaining wedge is allowing low clouds and some patches
of fog to develop largely east of the Blue Ridge, and near LWB.
Satellite shows much less development in the mountains at large
though. The clouds will thin and lift back above VFR levels
later this morning, and likely remain that way throughout the
forecast period.
Confidence in the above forecast is average.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR into early next week, aside from any late night fog at
mainly LWB. Low pressure system may bring us better chances for
showers by the middle of next week with potential sub-VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VFJ
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...CG/VFJ
LONG TERM...CG/VFJ
AVIATION...VFJ/BMG

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion