Baileys Prairie, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

087
FXUS64 KHGX 122337
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Generally dry and hot conditions expected through the forecast
  period.
- Mostly rain-free conditions are expected through Saturday, then
  some isolated activity in our coastal counties possible
  beginning as early as Sunday afternoon and continuing each
  afternoon through the rest of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Water vapor imagery is putting on an Omega pattern show, with a
west and east CONUS trough and a central CONUS ridge. This ridging
is helping to keep our region dry and hot with temperatures
warming well into the 90s. We are expecting similar conditions
tomorrow. A surge of higher PWATs is occuring over S Texas,
bringing scattered showers/storms to the Coastal Bend region. This
activity should remain to our south. However, a push of modestly
higher PWATs into our region is expected on Sunday as ridging
aloft breaks down somewhat. This is expected to result in slightly
lower temperatures along with a chance of isolated showers/storms
associated with the sea breeze boundary Sunday-Tuesday. Don`t get
too excited about those rain chances. We think most areas remain
dry. But a few lucky neighborhoods may see a brief downpour, with
the best chance of isolated showers/storms in our southern/coastal
counties.
Signals are a little mixed regarding how strong the ridging will
be later in the week. For now, I`m keeping the seasonably hot with
a slight chance of coastal showers/storms pattern in the forecast
through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR prevailing through the end of the period. Winds light and
variable overnight, becoming SE during the day Saturday. Isolated
showers possible late in the period; however, proabilities are too
low to warrant a mention in the TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
A relatively persistent easterly fetch is expected over the next
several days. The close proximity of a surface high pressure
system is expected to keep the strongest winds south of the
region. Winds through Monday are expected to average in the 10 to
15 knot range with higher gusts. Winds in Galveston Bay could be
lower given the aforementioned high pressure system. But our
southernmost and offshore-most waters could be sustained 15 to 20
knots at times. Seas are `only` forecast to be in the 2-4 foot
range (locally up to 5 feet) since the strongest fetch will be to
our south. But the persistent easterly flow is expected to be
enough to keep waters above tidal averages, with heights averaging
3.0 to 3.5 feet above MLLW during high tide cycles.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  94  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  90  79  89 /   0   0  10  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion