Baltimore, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

416
FXUS61 KBTV 211731
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
South winds will bring warmer conditions back to the region,
especially during the overnight hours. Chances for rain will arrive
tomorrow and Tuesday as a train of weak systems pass through the
region. Dry air will return for the midweek. Another round of
precipitation will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
will remain above average generally in the 70s during the day with
mid 40s to mid 50s at night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 127 PM EDT Sunday...For today, ample sunshine and increasing
south winds has brought 70s back to the region. Intermittent
gusts of 20 to 25 mph will continue across the Champlain Valley
this afternoon, but it should remain an overall pleasant day
over Vermont and northern New York. Overnight, southerly flow
doesn`t completely die off. So much warmer conditions in the mid
40s to mid 50s is expected. A few sheltered areas in eastern
Vermont could briefly approach frost conditions again in the
upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 127 PM EDT Sunday...Yesterday`s 00Z and 06Z guidance runs with
drier forecasts have generally reversed today. Prior packages had
tamped down PoP forecasts from NBM based on the recent dry pattern,
but high res guidance appears to be following with a wetter, more
active forecast in line with the return to more precipitation that
began with yesterday`s 12Z guidance. Thus, confidence is now high
enough to support a short window of widespread precipitation,
especially Monday night into Tuesday.
A decaying cold front is expected to shift southeast during daylight
hours on Monday. Showers will stream southwest to northeast ahead of
the front. Mostly scattered light shower activity will lift through
northern New York, but the front appears to wash out somewhat
sooner, and this will limit Vermont`s chances for rain on Monday.
Monday night into Tuesday, an upper trough will dig from the north
while surface high pressure remains strong over Bermuda. This will
funnel a streak of moisture east-northeast through the region. A
modest 80-90kt 250mb jet will develop across Maine, placing us in
the favorable right entrance region as a weakening mid-level trough
slides east. Elevated instability of around 100 J/kg will
destabilize further during the daylight to produce roughly 500 J/kg
on Tuesday afternoon. The weakening mid-level trough spoken of was
seen producing thunder across Oklahoma and Kansas last night, but
it`s difficult to say whether enough forcing could remain to produce
thunder, but at least Tuesday afternoon offers a chance for a few
rumbles, mainly south. The areal coverage should decrease as dry
northerly flow pushes south with the strong upper trough out of the
north, but a few showers could remain, Tuesday night. NBM data
has seen a tick back upwards for probability of rain greater
than 0.25" into the 40-60% range. Rainfall amounts will
generally range between 0.20-0.50" with locally higher amounts
around 0.80". It`s not really going to put a dent in anything,
but it should at least slow deepening drought conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 127 PM EDT Sunday...The pattern will remain fairly unsettled
through the latter half of the week and into next weekend. Lots of
differences in how things evolve, both model to model and run to
run, so not a whole lot of certainty that any one day will be either
wet or dry. The upper trough will pivot southward just to our east
on Wednesday, keeping the threat of scattered showers around through
the day. Brief ridging builds in thereafter while an upper
trough/weak close low digs into the Midwest while a weaker northern
stream shortwave treks across southern Canada. We look to remain on
the periphery of ridging to our east and this trough to our west,
placing us in southwest flow, allowing moisture to stream northward.
The question is how these two systems will interact and if the
moisture will lift this far north as the upper shortwave moves by
north of the international border. Given the uncertainty, have
stayed close to the NBM with 30-50% PoPs late Thursday through
Saturday. Regardless, note the long range probabilities of receiving
a half an inch of rain in any one 24-hr period remain 25% or less
through this entire period. So at this point, we expect little, if
any, impacts to the current drought. We`ll continue to monitor
trends, however; hopefully models will come into better agreement as
the time draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites
through the forecast period. SCT high clouds will persist through
00z, then low clouds AOA 4000 ft will very gradually push eastward
over the following 12-18 hours. Coverage of lower deck will
generally remain SCT for areas along and east of the Champlain
Valley, with BKN ceilings for KSLK and KMSS. Gusty S/SW winds will
continue 6-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible, except to 25 kt at
KBTV due to channeling up the valley. Gusts will abate after 00z
Mon, but sustained winds will remain 5-8 kt overnight, then
increasing again to 8-12 kt after sunrise. The exception will be
KBTV where gusts to 20 kt will continue to be possible through the
remainder of the forecast period.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have been steadily increasing across Lake Champlain, and
Colchester Reef has recently reported sustained winds of 25 knots.
Thus, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect focused over the broad
waters. These winds will likely continue early this afternoon, but
abate some this evening. However, during the overnight, sustained
south winds will likely return to 25 knots, and there may be a gust
to 30 knots. Other sections of Lake Champlain will likely remain
around 15 to 20 knots. Waves are expected to climb to 2 to 4 feet,
locally up to 5 feet across the broad waters of Lake Champlain.
Winds should abate late Monday morning.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
MARINE...NWS BTV

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion