Barree, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

898
FXUS61 KCTP 102340
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
740 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* A mainly dry and seasonable weather pattern is expected to
  continue for much of the next 8 days
* The exception will be when some light showers may fall over
  the northern half of PA Sat night-Sun night as a weak and
  moisture challenged front nears/passes
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A few, weak inverted troughs at llvls were helping to maintain
a bkn-ovc deck of mid to high end strato cu across the Lower and
Mid Susq Valley early this evening and this cloud cover will
likely hold in place for most or all of the overnight hours
(through 10-12Z Thu).
We can further see the impacts of these troughs by the NWWD
bulge in the RAP`S 925-850 mb Theta-E field (From SE PA to near
KUNV, KSEG and KHZL). There could even be a few sprinkles
through early tonight from the 6 KFT AGL cloud bases where the
max llvl theta-E convergence in taking place - near and just to
the east of KHGR along the prominent topographic feature of
South Mountain.
Elsewhere, look for just some patchy cirrus to drift NE during
the overnight hours.
Dewpoints and expected mins are a little higher overnight
than`recent nights, but the normal nrn valley fog will happen
again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to rule. We have very little reason to
deviate from the forecast of excellent (albeit very dry) weather
served up by the NBM. What is left of the morning clouds over
the SE will slink away to the S and dissipate. Only isold/sct cu
will pop up over the Alleghenies Thursday.
Friday and Saturday look a deg or two warmer, pushing us up to
5-10F warmer than normal across the board. RH will dip to the
30s and perhaps U20s each aftn. Without appreciable wind, there
is no worry for red flag conditions. But, the recent departures
from normal precip have resulted in a return to D1 drought
conditions for the Alleghenies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A northern stream front will push in from the Upper Great Lakes
for the second half of the weekend. The system is starved of
moisture and will only get drier as it hits PA and our parched
ground. Expect only sct SHRA from Sat night into late Sunday or
Sunday night. QPF is just about as low as you would think in
this pattern. Very few pixels of >0.10" to be seen on any models
or ensemble mean solutions. The front slows as it gets just to
the coast and a low pressure center may hang out near NJ. That
might try to throw a shower back into ern PA, but that is not
worth a 15 PoP for Monday. Dry thereafter as another sprawling
high pressure area slides in from the N/W.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Marine moisture in the SE and some convergence along inverted
trough extending NWWD into Southern and Central PA from the
stationary frontal boundary several hundred KM offshore of the
Mid Atlantic Coast will maintain a bkn-ovc layer of generally
VFR strato cu based generally between 040-060 AGL.The cloud
bases could temporarily dip into the upper end of MVFR at KLNS
and KMDT - around 025 AGL.
Valley fog is a given for the nrn half. So, we`ve mentioned
VCFG at many sites, and TEMPOs for all but JST overnight. IPT
has the highest prob of IFR with the valley fog, as they had
happen this/Wed AM. Otherwise, high pressure will make another
great (VFR) day Thurs, even for the SE as the lower clouds
should both be slinking S and thinning out in the post- sunrise
morning hours.
Outlook...
Fri-Sat...VFR except for AM valley fog.
Sat PM-Sun PM...Mainly VFR. Sct SHRAs N.
Mon...VFR except for AM valley fog.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambert/Dangelo

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion