Bartlett, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

044
FXUS63 KLBF 051908
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
208 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of patchy frost are possible tonight across northwest
  Nebraska and the northern Sandhills, as overnight low drop at
  or below 35 degrees.
- Cool, dry conditions persist this weekend, with highs mostly
  in the 70s.
- Temperatures begin to warm to near seasonal on Monday and
  remain so throughout the week for most of the region. Chances
  of appreciable precipitation return mid to late week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
An closed upper level low sits over central Ontario, bringing broad
upper level troughing over the northern Plains and Great Lakes
region. The slow moving low has stalled an upper level ridge over
the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is observed across
the northern and central Plains, ushering in cooler temperatures
from the north. A band of stratus continues to track to the south
across the Interstate 80 corridor, with mostly clear skies to the
north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A Canadian high pressure system will be the main driver for this
weekend`s weather pattern, keeping temperatures on the cooler side
throughout the day. Highs this weekend generally remain in the 70s,
though a few locations could break into the low 80s across
northwestern Nebraska Sunday afternoon. By Sunday afternoon, the
upper level low begins to track east, allowing upper level ridging
to build in from the west. Temperatures are expected to be a bit
warmer with highs still mostly in the mid to upper 70s. The high
pressure system through the weekend and advancing ridge keep a dry
weather pattern this weekend, with no precipitation expected across
western and north central Nebraska.
One thing of notice in the short term is the potential for areas of
patchy frost tonight across northwestern Nebraska and the northern
Sandhills. Observed temperatures this morning were a few degrees
cooler than guidance, bringing lows into the upper 30s across
northwestern Nebraska. Tonight, skies are expected to remain mostly
clear, with light surface winds, which will allow for strong
radiational cooling and cooler overnight lows. With this in mind,
have continued to keep the forecast lows towards the lower end of
guidance overnight. However, even with the lower temperatures
currently in the forecast, there is a chance that overnight lows
could still go a few degrees colder. With the current forecast, lows
are expected to drop to the mid 30s for a few hours overnight across
northwestern Nebraska, with the coolest lows around 34 degrees. As
lows drop below 35, areas of patch frost are expected to develop,
generally in the 2 to 3 hours prior to sunrise. Those with sensitive
plants or animals may want to take precautions tonight, especially
across northwestern Nebraska. While confidence is high in colder
temperatures tonight, have decided to forego any frost headlines at
this time, as confidence in widespread and lingering frost, as well
as temperatures below 32, remains low at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
By Monday, an interesting pattern develops in the upper level flow.
The northern polar jet continues to build a ridge across the region,
while a southern subtropical jet develops trough across southern
California. This actually helps build a higher amplitude ridge
across the western CONUS, including western and north central
Nebraska. With upper level ridging building across the region,
temperatures begin to climb back into the low to mid 80s, which are
near our seasonal highs this time of year. The southern jet is
expected to bring enough of a jet streak to support divergence aloft
across the region, despite the overall ridge. With this in place,
cannot completely rule out a few showers and possible thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday morning across north central Nebraska,
though better precipitation chances are expected across eastern
Nebraska.
With the subtropical trough remaining to our west, and a stronger
upper level trough in the polar jet arriving by mid week, chances of
precipitation increase Wednesday through the end of the week.
Current ensembles are in generally fair agreement on precipitation
chances mid to late week, with around a 30 to 40 percent chance of
wetting precipitation across portions of north central Nebraska.
Will continue to keep an eye on the evolution of this system, as
this does appear to be our next chances of appreciable rainfall
across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions will continue to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska this afternoon and overnight. A band of stratus
continues tracking south across the Interstate 80 corridor, with
ceilings remaining VFR. Further north, some fair weather cumulus is
developing, but no impacts are expected. Winds remain gusty this
afternoon across north central Nebraska, but once the low level
inversion develops overnight, winds become light and variable across
the region.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion