Bascom, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS61 KCLE 191159
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
759 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall over the Ohio River Valley by this
evening as high pressure strengthens over Ontario and Quebec. This
high will gradually drift to the northeast Saturday night and Sunday
as a warm front lifts across the region ahead of low pressure
drifting into the northern Great Lakes. This low will weaken early
next week while a stronger low approaches from the Mississippi
Valley by the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
More of the same can be expected to start the weekend as the
exceptionally dry pattern largely continues, but slow changes
will begin by Saturday night and Sunday that will finally allow
for some rain chances into next week. More on that later.
Starting off this morning, a weak backdoor cold front is pushing
south and southwestward across Lake Erie, with a distinct wind
shift noted on the KCLE WSR-88D base reflectivity and velocity
loops. This front will slow in forward motion this morning
before becoming quasi-stationary over the Ohio River Valley by
this evening. Low-level dryness augmented by the drought
conditions and no real synoptic forcing will keep all areas dry
today, but did increase cloud cover slightly above NBM guidance
given the frontal boundary slowly sagging through the region. By
tonight, strong surface high pressure building through Ontario
and Quebec will bring even drier air into the region on easterly
low-level flow, so skies will clear out. Highs today will be
noticeably cooler near the lakeshore and in far NE Ohio and NW
PA given ENE flow off the lake, with mid/upper 70s expected, but
the rest of the region will continue with highs in the low/mid
80s. Lows tonight will generally range from the mid/upper 50s,
except upper 40s/low 50s in far NE Ohio and NW PA.
Saturday and Saturday night, the large surface high over Ontario
and Quebec will very slowly drift to the NE as the northern
stream mid/upper trough axis over eastern Canada and the
Northeast U.S. lifts out. This will occur ahead of a closed low
slowly drifting from the Upper Midwest toward the northern
Great Lakes. This will allow a warm front to slowly lift across
the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Mid-level isentropic
ascent ahead of the warm front will generate an increasing cloud
deck Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, but feel that
the very dry easterly low-level flow from the high over eastern
Canada will win out and prevent any showers from reaching the
ground. Pattern recognition with droughts and slow moving,
blocked patterns also points toward delaying rain chances, so
removed all POPS Saturday and Saturday night despite NBM
wanting to introduce POPS. Highs Saturday will be similar, with
generally mid/upper 70s near the lakeshore and in far NE Ohio
and NW PA, and low/mid 80s across the rest of the region. Lows
Saturday night will be trending milder, with generally upper
50s/low 60s, except mid/upper 50s in far NE Ohio and NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As mentioned above, Saturday night will be in a slow transition
as the closed low drifting into the northern Great Lakes lifts a
warm front across the region, but the dry easterly flow and
drought conditions should win out and delay rain chances, with
the main impacts being increasing clouds and therefore milder
temperatures overnight. By Sunday, the needed low-level moisture
should finally start to advect into the area as southerly flow
deepens between the closed low to the NW and slowly departing
high to the NE. There will still not be much in the way of
synoptic forcing on Sunday, but moisture advection, pockets of
weak isentropic ascent, and daytime heating of a more humid
airmass will finally generate scattered showers and
thundershowers. It will not rain everywhere, but this will be
the beginning of the first chances for measurable rain in about
2 weeks. Highs Sunday will warm into the low/mid 80s areawide,
and as mentioned, it will become humid with dew points rising
into the 60s.
Sunday night through Monday night, prospects for rain will
further improve as the closed low pivots into the northern Great
Lakes while slowly weakening and opening into a broad mid/upper
trough. A 60-70 knot H3 jet streak rounding the base will
squeeze out clusters of showers and thunderstorms as the
improved dynamics interact with pooling low-level moisture along
and ahead of a cold front slowly drifting eastward through the
region. Kept high chance to likely POPS during this period
since all areas should see measurable rain at some point. This
will not be a drought buster, but it will begin the process of
slow improvement. Highs Monday will stay in the mid/upper 70s
given the clouds and precip, with lows Sunday night and Monday
night generally in the upper 50s/low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Coverage of showers should diminish slowly Tuesday as the
original closed low/trough lifts out and pulls the frontal
boundary east of the region, but details of the pattern become
highly uncertain by Wednesday and Thursday. Another closed low
may develop over the southern Plains and drift into the Mid
Mississippi Valley while yet another closed low drops through
the Northeast U.S. Guidance is struggling to resolve the timing
and placement of these features and whether or not they will
even develop since the pattern remains very blocked to the south
of a strong mid/upper ridge that develops over much of Canada.
Maintained NBM POPS and temperatures Tuesday through Thursday,
but whether or not additional drought improvement can occur will
depend on factors that cannot be resolved yet.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A cold front is currently working its way southward across the area
this morning, with isolated instances of non-VFR conditions
observed across the northern fringes of the forecast area with
lowered ceilings and visibilities. Brief non-VFR is possible
through the next hour or two. Conditions should quickly improve
to VFR areawide by late this morning, with VFR continuing
through the rest of the TAF period.
Light and variable winds early this morning will become north
and northeast 6-10 knots during the day Friday. Winds become
east-northeast tonight, weakening to around 5 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through at least Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front crosses Lake Erie early this morning, with east-
northeast winds around 10-15 knots developing and persisting
through early Saturday night. A period of stronger wind speeds
around 15 to 25 knots is expected Saturday afternoon, for which
a brief, marginal small craft advisory and beach hazard
statement may be needed for at least a portion of Lake Erie
(especially east of the islands). Latest model guidance has
60-80% chance of >=3 ft waves from 18Z/Sat to 03/Sun, so
confidence is pretty high that we will see at least a moderate
chance of rip currents and we will be close to headlines on Lake
Erie.
A warm front lifts north across the lake Saturday night, with
winds veering to out of the south on Sunday and then out of the
southwest Sunday night through Monday night. Wind speeds will
generally be 10-15 knots, though there may be brief periods (on
the order of a few hours) Sunday and Sunday night when speeds
reach 20 knots or so. A cold front crosses by Tuesday or Tuesday
night with east-northeast flow thereafter.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion