Basye, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

495
FXUS61 KLWX 021813
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
213 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the northeast CONUS will push offshore Friday
into the weekend and remain there early next week. This will
result in a gradual warming trend over the coming days. A potent
cold front may push through around mid-week, bringing rain
chances and noticeably cooler temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong high pressure is currently centered over New England and
extends down the spine of the Appalachains through the Carolinas
and into Georgia. This is leading to near to slightly below
normal temperatures this afternoon locally. A decent cumulus
field has developed, especially east of the Blue Ridge, in
response to onshore southeasterly flow. This will remain
present until sunset, when clouds should quickly dissipate.
Mainly clear skies tonight as high pressure dominates the
weather pattern. Temperatures will likely be a bit warmer than
last night, so no frost concerns at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned area of high pressure will push offshore
tomorrow and Saturday, which will result in increased
temperatures as winds turn out of the south. No precipitation
is expected during this time, and highs will rise to the middle
to upper 70s. Additionally, overnight lows will be a touch
warmer each night areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the region this weekend slides offshore at the
start of next week. Dry and warm conditions are expected to persist
Sunday into Monday as highs reach the upper 70s to low 80s each day.
Overnight temps become increasingly mild, especially Monday night
and Tuesday night with lows in the upper 50s to 60s. As the surface
high moves further offshore through mid week, southerly return flow
brings increasing moisture into the area. This starts out as
scattered showers west of the Blue Ridge on Tuesday, then becoming
areawide on Wednesday.
A strong cold front is likely to move through the region sometime
during the middle of next week, though models differ on timing from
Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning. Regardless, this could be
the first true fall front that brings widespread lows in the 30s to
40s across the region on Thursday night. Depending on where the high
is positioned Thursday night, frost and freeze conditions are
possible for some areas west of the Blue Ridge. Also, this might be
the best chance in quite a while for beneficial, widespread
rainfall. Ensemble guidance has 0.50-0.75" of rain, with higher end
solutions around 1.00-1.25".
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light southeasterly winds today AOB 10 knots for the most part
as high pressure builds over the northeast CONUS. As a result, a
prominent cumulus deck has developed, mainly east of the Blue
Ridge. Expect SCT-BKN cloud decks around 3-4 kft.
Winds become southerly on Friday as high pressure shifts
offshore. Sct stratocu deck during the day, dissipating at
night. No sig wx is expected through Sunday morning.
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week
as high pressure remains over the region.
&&
.MARINE...
As high pressure remains over the northeast CONUS through
tonight, winds remain light out of the SE, so no marine hazards
are expected at this time. Winds will turn more southerly on
Friday into Saturday, but should still likely remain below SCA
criteria.
Favorable marine conditions continue through early next week as high
pressure over the region moves offshore. South to southeast winds
during the day become light southwest at night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
No changes to Coastal Flood headlines with the afternoon update
compared to this morning. There is a bit of a dip in the
anomalies this afternoon, so forecast may be running a bit high
at this time. However, could jump back up again this evening
before likely dropping into Friday. Coastal Flood Warnings
remain in effect for Annapolis and Straits Point through
tonight`s high tide cycle. Elsewhere, widespread minor coastal
flooding will continue into Friday morning before water levels
begin to drop Friday. However, the more sensitive sites,
especially Annapolis, could continue in minor flood stage
through the Saturday high tide cycles. If this downward trend
continues, some changes may be necessary in future forecast
cycles.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ016-018.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ054.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion