Bathgate, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

510
FXUS63 KFGF 120912
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
412 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Upper air pattern would keep higher storm chances and higher
  severe risk to our west into Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...Synopsis...
SPC meso analysis has been showing all night two cores of warm
advection. One that has been over the Lake of the Woods region
and producing storms in that area with expansion of storms
noted. But elevated instability in this region has been limited
and no severe wx with these. Second area is nose of 35 kt 850 mb
jet that feeds into the storms that formed earlier Rugby area
and moved thru Devils Lake. Strong very large hail signatures
noted Rugby area into Devils Lake region...but hail size from
MRMS likely overdone as hail is falling in a warm environment
with high kdp values with some melting going on from the cloud
base to the surface. CAMs have remained so-so at best for the
last few days or weeks for that matter. Overall trend is for the
DVL storms to track east-southeast but weaken in time as they do
toward Grand Forks, in terms of hail potential. Locally heavy
rainfall a good bet though, and a flash flood warning is out for
parts of northern Benson county ND where Friday morning heavy
rain fell as well. 24 hour rainfall totals Rugby to Leeds in the
2-4 inch range. Storms have picked up speed since leaving Devils
Lake and rainfall rates are less and spend less time over one
area.
What happens to storm chances today. 30kt low level jet remains
thru 15z-18z Fri so would anticipate chances for elevated
convection into SE ND into NW MN thru the morning. Some hints at
CAMS that t-storm chances increase in west central MN this
afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated with these at this
time.
Tonight into Saturday will see focus for moisture and t-storm
chances shifting back west as upper through moves east and 500
mb low moves from central Montana into southwest Saskatchewan.
Sharp 500 mb ridge over the forecast area into Minnesota and it
looks like any storm chances remain west thru Saturday. Far west
could get into some convection later Saturday.
Sunday will see another short wave in Colorado ridge northeast
around the upper low in Saskatchewan and a short wave trough
moving thru the area a bit slower than prev fcst and looks like
more late Sunday night or Monday morning. Instability progs show
decent CAPE values (over 1000 j/kg) ahead of the wave Sunday
afternoon, but forcing for any storms may need to wait til
trough moves in Sun overnight or early Monday and then the
instability is considerably less.
All this means that risk of severe storms for today thru Sunday
night are iffy at best.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Some IFR stratus has moved into the KBJI area from the east and
does not look like it will be going anywhere overnight at least
until storms start pushing in later in the morning. Rest of the
TAF sites remain VFR with some convection near KDVL at the start
of the period and then moving east through the early morning.
Some low level wind shear also with jet increasing out ahead of
the convection. Storms should be out of the area or dissipated after
15Z, with VFR conditions and southeast winds becoming more
easterly.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion