768 FXUS63 KOAX 221054 AFDOAXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 554 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog will impact areas along and east of the Missouri River this morning, and again Tuesday morning.
- Temperatures will climb into the 80s this afternoon. Cooler temperatures (70s) are expected through late this week.
- Thunderstorms are expected late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. A few storms could become strong to severe with hail being the main concern. Gusty winds will also be possible in addition to an isolated tornado.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fog has developed along and east of the Missouri River this morning. Localized areas of one mile or less visibility will be expected through around mid-morning, dissipating as temperatures warm up. Southerly winds will usher warmer air into the region today. Highs will reach the low to mid-80s.
A shortwave trough will slide southeast across the Rockies today and a surface low will move across Nebraska today. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, kicking off along a boundary in the northeastern part of the CWA and moving southward. Large hail will be the main concern with storms that develop. Gusty winds will also be a concern with thunderstorms. There is a small, non-zero chance for an isolated tornado for areas to the southeast of the sfc low. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the overnight hours and into the day Tuesday as the upper trough slips into the Central High Plains. Tuesday evening, a 20-30% chance of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm will remain possible for areas primarily along and south of I-80.
Expect a cool down Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Heading into the latter part of the week, a gradual warming trend will set up. Highs will return to the upper 70s to mid-80s by Friday. An upper ridge sets up over the Central Plains Friday, remaining over the region through the weekend. Expect dry conditions and highs each day in the upper 70s to mid-80s.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fog will remain a concern through around 14Z, particularly at KOMA. Reductions to visibility along and east of the Missouri are expected to continue through shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected through the day. Heading into late this afternoon and evening, thunderstorm chances develop to the north and west of the area. Chances increase in the evening, bringing the best shot at storms impacting the terminals. Added a mention of thunderstorms in prevailing conditions although there is still some uncertainty on the timing of storm initiation.
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.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None.
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DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...ANW
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion