Bellows Falls, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

505
FXUS61 KALY 180558
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
158 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and dry afternoon is expected today before a cold front
brings a return to more seasonable temperatures Friday through
the weekend. The front could bring a shower or two to areas
north and west of Albany late this afternoon and evening but
most areas will remain dry. Dry weather continues this weekend
before warmer and more humid weather returns early next week
with the potential for some much needed rainfall in some areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The low pressure system that was over the mid-Atlantic region
over the past couple of days has since weakened and opened into
a wave and will slowly drift northeastward away from the region
today. Any rain shower activity from this system has ended and
a trend toward a mostly sunny sky is expected as the day
progresses with any patchy areas of fog or low stratus lifting
during the early morning hours. 850 hPa temperatures around +13
to +14C will allow temperatures to rise 5 to 10 degrees above
normal this afternoon with values in the mid-70s to lower-80s.
A cold front will begin to drop southward across the region
tonight and continue through the day tomorrow. This front will
lack moisture so most areas will remain dry but bring an
increase in clouds. The best chance for a shower or two will be
for areas north and west of Albany. Temperatures will fall back
into the 50s for most areas with some upper 40s across the
Adirondacks. As the front continues to cross on Friday, cooler
and drier air will gradually filter into the region. High
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s across the
Adirondacks and southern Greens to the 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys.
High pressure will nose southward from Canada on Friday and
remain in place through the weekend. High temperatures will
generally be in the 60s and 70s over the weekend with Saturday
the cooler day of the two. Ideal radiational cooling conditions
and the driest air mass of the season thus far will send
temperatures into the 30s and 40s both Friday and Saturday
night. Near freezing conditions could occur on one or both
nights across the Adirondacks. Frost/Freeze headlines will
likely be needed for one or both nights for some areas as the
growing season continues.
The surface high will shift to the east early next week as south
to southwesterly return flow develops at the surface and aloft.
This will result in a gradual warming trend back to above
normal conditions. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day with high
temperatures returning to the mid-70s to mid-80s. It will even
feel a bit humid by Tuesday with dewpoints back into the 60s.
While Monday looks to remain mostly dry, there is the potential
for an upper level shortwave to pass close enough to the area
and bring some rain showers and possible thunderstorms on
Tuesday and Wednesday pending its placement and track. For now,
will include 20-40% PoPs for both days and monitor trends over
the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...As skies cleared during the evening (except
for some passing high level cirrus clouds), temperatures have
dropped near dewpoints which has resulted in fog formation at
KGFL/KPOU. IFR/LIFR conditions will mainly prevail through the
early morning hours at these sites. KALB/KPSF have VFR
conditions to start, but could also see some occasional fog and
reduction to IFR/LIFR conditions starting around 09z. So will
mention TEMPO at these sites through 11z. Fog should dissipate
by 12z-13z, with conditions then improving to VFR. Winds will be
near calm, becoming west-northwest around 4-7 kt by this
afternoon.
Outlook...
Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A warm afternoon is expected today before a cold front brings a
cooler and drier air mass Friday into the weekend. The front may
bring a shower or two to areas north and west of Albany tonight,
but most areas will remain dry. Any showers that do occur will
bring very light amounts. Behind the front, north to northwest
winds will generally be between 10-15 mph on Friday with some
localized gusts to around 20 mph. RH values will lower to 35 to
45 percent range during the afternoon hours. Despite RH values
lowering to the 25 to 35 percent range on Saturday, wind will be
rather light and variable at less than 10 mph.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Webb
DISCUSSION...Rathbun
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun/Webb

NWS aly Office Area Forecast Discussion