Ben Lomond, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

167
FXUS64 KSHV 211719
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Scattered thunderstorm chances will continue on a daily basis
   through the week ahead.
- The most noteworthy rainfall chances arrive midweek areawide,
   accompanied by highs cooling from the 90s to 80s.
- Dry conditions will return to the region this weekend with an
   incoming dry air mass.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Southerly flow over the Ark-La-Tx has introduced our typical
summertime cu field, with some pop-up showers beginning to appear in
our southern zones during recent radar scans. These showers are
likely to continue north through the afternoon, dying quickly with
the loss of heating this evening. There is also ongoing rain in
portions of North Central TX and South Central OK. These showers are
likely to begin creeping into our far northern zones this afternoon
and continue through this evening and overnight. WPC has highlighted
Southeast OK and parts of Northeast TX as having a slight risk for
flash flooding with today`s rain. All the extra cloud cover in these
areas will help keep some heat overnight, with tonight`s low
temperatures falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. Some light fog
could develop around our typical suspects with the increased
southerly moisture in the region.
The low pressure system that we`ve been monitoring has been becoming
more consistent on long-range models. The Euro and GFS have
agreed on more of a deep and positively tilted trough moving into
the Central Plains and the Mississippi River Valley by midweek.
But the introduction of mid-range models to the mix has brought
other solutions. Namely, the NAM has a deeper trough, with a
central pressure of around 576 dm by 00z Wed compared to the GFS`s
580, that is moving slightly faster than other models. The
current thinking is that the rain initially focused on the
northern portion of the CWA will become more widespread beginning
late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and clear to the east late on
Thursday. This timeline could shift slightly depending on the
speed of this trough, but the focus on midweek has been consistent
over the past several days. With this consistent signal of
prolonged rain, there is a potential for flash and urban flooding
this week. WPC has the northwest half of the CWA highlighted in a
marginal risk on Tuesday and areas along/south of I- 30
highlighted on Wednesday. This system isn`t expected to bring
widespread severe weather, but SPC has a D3 marginal out for most
areas along and north of I-20 for pockets of storms that are able
to temporarily strengthen. One solace is that all this rain will
briefly bring regional high temperatures into the low to mid 80s
by Thursday.
Dry air will be on the coat tails of this system, keeping things dry
into the weekend with some slowly increasing temperatures. There
may still be some diurnally driven convection during the
afternoons with the increased sun, but nothing to write home about
at this time.
/57/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
For the 21/12Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through most
of the period with light southerly winds near 5 kts. Some
-SHRA/-TSRA convection could propagate into KLFK by 21/18Z-22/00Z.
 /16/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  70  92  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  68  89  70  90 /  20  40  30  50
TXK  72  92  73  94 /  10  20  20  40
ELD  68  90  70  92 /  10  20  10  30
TYR  72  91  73  92 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  70  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  70  92  72  94 /  10  20   0  30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion