Bend, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

492
FXUS64 KSJT 051048
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
548 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot again today with isolated to widely scattered showers and
  storms this afternoon and evening, increasing in coverage late
  tonight.
- Cooler temperatures with increasing rain chances return for the
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
One more hot day across the area today before cooler temperatures
arrive for the weekend, along with increasing rain chances. A cold
front will arrive across the Big Country late this afternoon and
spread south across the remainder of the forecast area this evening.
Mid and high clouds will be on the increase today, as moisture
from the remnants of Lorena spread eastward. While the higher rain
chances are expected over the weekend, isolated showers and storms
will be possible this afternoon, primarily across the Big Country
and Concho Valley. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
to increase late tonight into Saturday morning, with the highest
POPs from the Concho Valley and Heartland southward. As for
temperatures, expect highs manly in the mid and upper 90s today
ahead of the front, with lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The combination of moisture from the remnants of Lorena and lift
behind a cold front will bring a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms this weekend into Monday. Also, PW values will be
1.25 to 1.75 inches, so heavy rainfall may produce localized flash
flooding. The WPC will be downgrading to a marginal risk for the
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall as conditions are looking less favorable.
Look for medium to high chances(40 to 80%) of rain south of I-20
Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night. Rainfall amounts
will average 0.5 to 1 inch with a very low chance(10%) of greater
than 3 inches of rain mainly south of a Mertzon to San Angelo to
Brownwood line this weekend. It will be cooler with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s.
Expect dry and warmer weather next week. Highs will be in the upper
80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows be in the 60s to around 70.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Light winds early this
morning will increase from the southwest after 15Z and gust
15 to 20 knots for most of the terminals. A cold front will move
in from the north this afternoon and evening. FROPA is expected at
KABI and KSJT by late afternoon and the far southern terminals by
early evening. Expect an increase in mid and high clouds today
with, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible by
late afternoon into the evening hours, primarily at KABI and KSJT.
Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
primarily across the southern terminals after midnight. For now,
will include PROB30 groups for showers but will not mention thunder
due to isolated nature.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  62  79  66 /  20  20  20  20
San Angelo  94  65  77  64 /  10  40  40  30
Junction    97  69  82  66 /  10  30  50  30
Brownwood   98  65  80  65 /  10  20  30  20
Sweetwater  95  61  79  64 /  20  20  20  20
Ozona       93  67  79  65 /  10  40  50  40
Brady       95  67  77  66 /  10  20  40  30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...24

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion