Berlin, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

263
FXUS62 KTAE 012013
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
413 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Northeast flow will continue to prevail through tomorrow. Lower dew
points will also be advected into the region from the northeast
throughout the afternoon, suppressing any shower activity to nearly
nil within our inland areas. Showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible offshore. Fairly benign conditions overall. A tightening
pressure gradient across the region will lead to gusty conditions
throughout the afternoon.
Expect highs generally in the 80s with lows generally in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
As a trough continues to march offshore into the Atlantic, we`ll see
surface high pressure continue to build to our north with prevailing
northeast flow at the surface through the weekend. An inverted
trough looks to round the base of the high and move across the
northeast Gulf this weekend. This will lead to moisture advection of
higher dew points back into the region with upper 60s and low 70s
dews Sunday and Monday, pushing PWATs back above 2 inches. Along
with the additional forcing for ascent from the shortwave/trough,
we`ll possibly see our best chances for precip this weekend. Current
guidance isn`t overly excited on precip amounts, we`ll have to see
if any dry air aloft limits how much precip hits the surface.
Expect gusty conditions as the pressure gradient tightens between
the shortwave and the high pressure.
By Tuesday the shortwave will depart to our northwest and high
pressure once again becomes entrenched. Precip chances all decrease
as a consequence.
Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A tightening pressure gradient is expected for the upcoming few
days. Advisory level winds begin tonight and continue through the
weekend with winds around 20-25 kts and gusts around 30-35 kts. Seas
are expected to increase and range from 5-8 ft tomorrow through the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Transport winds will be northeasterly through the period and
increasing to around 15-20 mph. Mixing heights will range from
around 5000 ft to pockets of above 6000 feet. Dispersion values are
expected to be good each afternoon, but higher values will be in
pockets throughout districts. MinRH values will generally be in the
low 40s and upper 30s percent. Minimal rainfall over the next
several days maintains fire weather concerns with fuels continuing
to dry out.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Very little in the way of rainfall is expected over the next week
with about an inch expected near the Gulf Coast decreasing to around
a quarter inch across SE AL and SW GA. There are currently no
flooding concerns as rivers and streams run below normal.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  85  67  83 /   0  10   0  10
Panama City   69  87  67  85 /  10  10   0  10
Dothan        64  83  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        64  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      67  84  65  82 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    69  87  68  85 /  10  20   0  40
Apalachicola  71  84  69  83 /  20  30  10  30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-
     775.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion