Big Bend, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

936
FXUS63 KMKX 111459 AAA
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
959 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low clouds and chances for fog will return tonight but there
  is still uncertainty in placement and intensity.
- Chances (20 to 35 percent) for showers and thunderstorms
  later Friday night into Saturday morning.
- High temperatures climbing above normal through the weekend,
  with humidity increasing as well.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 958 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The dense fog and lower clouds in southeast Wisconsin cleared
quickly this morning, but the low stratus are lingering over
central and east central WI. The higher stratus that was over
inland areas is also mixing out. The cloud cover will remain
fairly uncertain today as high pressure sits overhead and the
mixing heights will ultimately determine when the clouds will
break up toward central WI. Expect areas of fog again tonight,
probably near the lake again, although uncertainty remains about
location and how dense it may become.
Cronce
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 445 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Today through Friday night:
An area of dense fog will continue to shift southwest across
parts of east central and southeast Wisconsin into this morning,
with a northeast fetch off of Lake Michigan. The Dense Fog
Advisory was expanded to the west to account for this movement.
The Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM CDT this
morning in these areas. There may be patchy dense fog elsewhere
into the morning hours, though the lingering middle level cloud
cover is limiting most of this development. Areas that have some
holes in the cloud cover may see the patchy dense fog. The fog
should mix out by middle morning.
The current clouds may linger into or perhaps through today,
though there should be some mixing out of these clouds as the
day goes on. There should also be some diurnal scattered cumulus
clouds that develop in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s are
forecast inland, with lower to middle 70s closer to the lake
with the modest easterly winds.
High pressure to the east of region should keep things dry
tonight into Friday. There may be more fog and low stratus
clouds that move southwest into the lakeshore counties later
tonight into early Friday morning, though confidence is low as
the low level flow becomes more easterly off the lake/shorter
fetch. There is some indication for patchy dense fog in low
lying areas overnight into early Friday morning as well. For
now, kept patchy fog in the forecast. Southeast to south winds
on Friday should bring highs into the lower to middle 80s
inland, with 70s closer to the lake.
As the 500 mb ridge axis shifts across the region Friday night,
there may be a shortwave trough that moves southeast through.
There is uncertainty with where the surface warm front may move
into Friday night, and subsequent chances for showers and some
thunderstorms. For now, kept 20 to 35 percent chances going
later Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 445 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Saturday through Tuesday:
As the shortwave trough moves through and exits the state to
the southeast Saturday morning, any lingering showers and storms
will also exit to the southeast. The larger upper level (500
mb) pattern will remain fairly similar through the weekend,
with an upper level ridge over the Great Lakes Region. This
ridge will be shifting eastward over time, with its central
axis making its way into Michigan by early next week. This will
create a prolonged period of largely dry weather.
From one guidance to another or one run to another there are
some additional shortwave troughs that try to move through the
flow and undercut the ridge. Some low chance POPs have therefore
made it into the extended forecast, due to the shortwave
troughs when guidance starts to line up just a bit, but PoP
chances top out around 15 to 20 percent.
Dry low level air leads to some skepticism if Wisconsin will
even get rain if a shortwave moves through. Due to our proximity
to the central axis in the ridge, warm air advection will
remain and temperatures should be in the upper 70s to
potentially upper 80s through much of the extended. Looking
further into the middle of next week, guidance does have a
signal for this ridging to finally break down.
Patterson
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 958 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Fog over east central and southeast WI diminished quickly this
morning. The low ceilings toward central WI are expected to lift
and break up some as mixing improves today. There should also
be some diurnal scattered cumulus clouds around 4000 feet AGL
that develop elsewhere in the afternoon. Modest easterly winds
are expected today.
High pressure to the east of region should keep things dry
tonight into Friday. Light winds are expected again tonight,
becoming southeast to south on Friday.
There may be more fog and low ceilings that move southwest into
the terminals near the lake later tonight into early Friday
morning, though confidence is low. There is some indication for
patchy dense fog in low lying areas overnight into early Friday
morning as well.
Wood/Cronce
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 445 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
High pressure around 30.3 inches near James Bay will shift east
into Quebec today, with northeast winds expected. Some dense
fog will linger into this morning east of Sheboygan to Wind
Point to mid lake, where a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until
10 AM CDT. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect as well for the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan until 10 AM CDT. Patchy dense
fog may occur over other portions of the lake as well.
High pressure will continue to move southeast into New England
on Friday. Low pressure around 29.7 inches should move into the
northern Great Plains, allowing winds to turn south to
southeast. Showers and some thunderstorms are expected to move
through the region Friday night into Saturday, with south winds
increasing.
Winds will turn back out of the northeast Saturday night into
Sunday, as a frontal boundary shifts south and high pressure
around 30.2 inches develops in Quebec.
Wood
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-
     WIZ071-WIZ072 until 10 AM Thursday.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673 until 10 AM Thursday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion