Big Creek, California Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS66 KHNX 091725
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1025 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Thick smoke from the Garnet Fire will move across the Sierra
Nevada portions of Madera, Fresno and Tulare Counties overnight
into the early morning before becoming more pushed towards
Nevada in the afternoons. The Dense Smoke Advisory has been
extended until 11 AM Wednesday because of this.
2. Temperatures continue to drop through the week before a brief
rebound over the weekend.
3. 5-15 percent chance of thunderstorms today mostly in
Mariposa County. Probability increases on Wednesday and Thursday
to 10 to 30 percent as the chances expand farther south into
Tulare County.
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.DISCUSSION...
The cooler trend continues today as the trough continues to make
its way into California. However, precipitation chances increase
on Wednesday especially for the northern San Joaquin Valley and
foothills. Merced has a 35 percent chance of a tenth of an inch
of rain or more and Mariposa has a 25 percent chance of a tenth
of an inch of rain or more. The rest of the Valley has a 10 to
25 percent chance of accumulating rain on Wednesday and
Thursday. In the Sierra Nevada, thunderstorm chances increase
from 5-15 percent today to 10-30 percent chance on Wednesday and
Thursday. The thunderstorm chances also spread into Tulare
County on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, this trough also will push the smoke from the Garnet
Fire into Nevada especially in the afternoon and evening.
However, transport winds shift overnight from the southwest and
west to east and northeast leading to the smoke to spread into
the foothill communities of Madera, Fresno and portions of
Tulare Counties. This has led to an extension of the Dense
Smoke Advisory until Wednesday morning.
Temperatures rebound on Friday and Saturday as a ridge moves in
as the trough slides out. However, another trough moves in
Sunday into Monday bringing temperatures back down. Another
ridge begins to move in on Tuesday but is stronger which will
help bring temperatures back up.
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AVIATION...
18Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
for the next 24 hours. Areas of low visibility in smoke will be
lingering across the Sierra Foothills in Madera/Fresno/Tulare
Counties through 18Z Wednesday, after which southwesterly flow
aloft will push much of the smoke upslope towards the Sierra
crest. 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Northern
Sierra Nevada this afternoon through 03Z.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ320-325>329.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ320-
325>329.
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$$
public...JPK
aviation....Molina
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion