Blue Hill Falls, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS61 KCAR 161044
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
644 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide south of the region today and
Wednesday. A cold front will approach Thursday and cross the
region Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will build in
from the west later Friday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 am update...
Sfc high remains over the area. Updated to ingest latest temps
and dwpts but no chgs needed this morning.
Prev discussion blo...
Surface high is dominating area weather for the next several days.
Clear skies are present over CWA tonight and with temps falling twd
dwpts late tonight, expect that river valley fog should develop once
again, dissipating shortly after sunup. H8 temps warming into the
double digits this afternoon will allow maxes to rise above
normal today with m70s north and u70s south.
Vertically stacked low off of the Outer Banks will slowly creep twd
the mid-Atlantic states tonight and perhaps bring high thin cirrus
to southern parts of the area late tonight though will remain mostly
clear. With little change in airmass expect a repeat with river
valley fog expected to develop late tonight.
High pressure will build offshore on Wednesday with return flow
during the afternoon. High clouds will continue to encroach on area
from the south during the day but expect highs to climb to above
seasonal norms once again for all inland locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CWA will be in between systems Wednesday night and Thursday. Stacked
low pressure over the mid-Atlantic coast will start to eject out to
sea as another upr s/wv drops into the nrn Plains/nrn Rockies. Sfc
low driving sfc cold front thru Quebec will drop into
Newfoundland/Labrador Wednesday night with cold front still north of
the St. Lawrence by 12z Thursday. May see another round of valley
fog Wednesday night but could be a little more isolated in nature
given uncertainty of how thick cirrus shield will be from ejecting
mid-Atlantic low.
Thursday will see sfc cold front begin to approach the area from the
north with highs once again above normal in the u70s/nr 80 for
inland areas. Highs will be dependent on how quickly fropa occurs
with most operational guidance keeping front just north of the area
thru 00z, though some models are giving indications that cold front
may be a little faster than originally thought and will need to keep
an eye on movement.
Cold front moves through Thursday evening into Friday morning.
Latest probabilistic guidance continues to lower rainfall amounts
with fropa, as current probabilities for 0.10 inches now down to 20%
over the St. John Valley and < 5% for areas south of Katahdin
Region. Fropa will usher in colder and drier air for the end of the
week into Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
850mb temps drop to below zero for Friday and Saturday. Given
extremely dry airmass, with probabilistic guidance showing > 75% of
pw values less than 0.3 inches areawide, lowered dewpoints on Friday
and Saturday afternoons by several degrees over the area. With nw
winds gusting to 20-25kts on Friday expect fire weather to become a
concern once again.
Min temps on Friday night will drop into the lwr/mid 30s over the
north though pressure gradient will remain to keep areas fairly well-
mixed. Latest models showing winds decoupling on Saturday night and
with clear skies this will likely be the best radn/l cooling night.
Have lowered temps by 1-3 degrees for the area but will likely need
to be dropped as we get later in the week. NBM 5th percentile for
mins showing lwr 20s over the valley areas in the north. Cannot rule
out that widespread frost and possibly a killing freeze is on the
docket for Saturday night over the north.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR this afternoon and this evening before possible
IFR/LIFR fog late in the TAF forecast, mainly at HUL and PQI.
VFR expected on Wednesday with high cirrus spreading from south
to north. Light and variable winds today and tonight, becoming
ssw 5-10kts on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night...Mainly VFR though IFR/LIFR vsbys in patchy fog
late. Light S winds.
Thursday-Friday...Mainly VFR all terminals. Cannot rule out brief
MVFR cigs for Aroostook terminals Thursday evening and
overnight. SW 5-10kts becoming NW 5-10kts Thursday night with
gusts 20-25kts Friday afternoon.
Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW 5-15kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below small craft
levels through Wednesday. Winds under 10kts and seas below 2ft
through the near term period.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA levels through Saturday.
Winds increase with cold front passage Friday night with outer
waters approaching 20kts gusts through early Saturday morning.
Seas will range from 1 to 3 feet into the weekend.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Buster/Buster
Marine...Buster/Buster

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion