567 FXUS64 KHUN 270440 AFDHUNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM... (Rest of Tonight and Saturday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Showers and storms have largely come to an end this evening. While we can`t rule out a stray shower or two overnight, confidence is low in any more activity through the remainder of the night. The main concern, much like last night, will be the potential for patchy, dense fog development east of I-65 later tonight as moisture lingers leading to low dew point depressions. In fact, some surface observations have noted slight, temporary reductions in visibility at times east of I-65 so far this evening. This will be monitored in case a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for northeast Alabama and eastern portions of southern middle Tennessee late tonight into early Saturday. Regardless, make sure to be cautious if driving tonight/early tomorrow - use low beam headlights, leave plenty of space in front of you, and delay travel (if possible) until conditions improve. With lingering moisture, lows may only dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas later tonight.
An upper level trough will continue to swing over the Southeast, pushing northeast of the Tennessee Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. At the surface, the cold front has largely passed to our southeast tonight; however, the parent low pressure system`s trajectory takes more of a northeasterly turn on Saturday. This may result in some wrap-around moisture pushing back into our area and thus, there is a low chance (10-20%) of showers and perhaps a storm during the day for far northeastern Alabama and eastern portions of southern middle Tennessee. Although, most of the local area should remain dry. By sunset, with the loss of daytime heating, any activity able to develop will likely cease. As for temperatures, expect highs to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday afternoon.
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.SHORT TERM... (Saturday Night through Monday Night) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
As the upper level trough tries to progress northeastward, it will become blocked by the stronger ridge over the central Atlantic. Because of this, it will be ingested by the incoming low pressure over the Bahamas that is slated to head towards the Florida/Georgia coasts Sunday night into Monday (keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center`s page for more info on the development and track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9). With upper level high pressure/ridging to the north/northwest over the Midwest, a sort of "Rex block" pattern forms and will keep chances of showers/storms over the Deep South, into Georgia and up through the Carolinas. Meanwhile, drier weather is anticipated to the north/northwest.
Overall, most of the shower/storm chances are likely to remain to our southeast; however, low chances (10-20%) of showers/storms may creep into the eastern portion of our local area (areas east of I-65) Monday afternoon. However, confidence in any substantial rain is low and no severe weather is forecast. More than likely, most areas will remain dry from Sunday through Monday. Highs in the lower to mid 80s with lows warming into the lower to mid 60s is then expected from late weekend into early next week.
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.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Low rainfall chances (20% or less) return mid week primarily in NE AL and portions of southern middle TN as increased moisture returns to the area and sfc high pressure continues northeastward. Confidence in shower/thunderstorm development is low due to high model disagreement in how the tropical systems to our east play out and how that influences the upper level pattern. Therefore, continued to stick with blended guidance of a mostly dry pattern. However, anyone with interests in outdoor plans mid next week is encouraged to check back in for updates as the forecast may change. Highs at the beginning of the week are forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s; however, a gradual cool down is expected. Highs by the end of the week should remain in the 70s and overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at both terminals through the period. The one exception may be early this morning at KHSV where MVFR/IFR conditions from light fog may develop between 08-12z. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions with light winds will prevail.
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.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. &&
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NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...AMP.24
NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion