811 FXUS63 KLBF 252350 AFDLBFArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 650 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Approaching elevated fire weather conditions across the northwest Sandhills Friday afternoon.
- Southerly winds will range from breezy to windy Sunday through Wednesday. Monday looks to be the windiest day with gusts to 30 mph possible.
- Highs Sunday through next Thursday are forecast to be as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs in the lower to mid 80s, with mainly dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
An upper ridge axis will reside over the region tonight. With clear skies and winds light at around 5 mph or less, went below NBM for lows and nudged toward the MET and MAV guidance. Lows this morning reached the upper 30s to low 40s across some the the western areas. Lows tonight from the mid 40s west and southwest to low 50s northeast.
Friday, a shortwave upper trough will move into the Northern Plains. This will drive a cold front into western South Dakota by afternoon. Warming will occur ahead of the front with highs reaching the mid 80s. Went above NBM for highs, again nudging toward the MET and MAV guidance. Afternoon humidity will fall to as low as 20 percent across the northwest Sandhills with winds turning to the west at 10 to 15 mph early afternoon, then northwest by late afternoon as the cold front arrives. Winds will gust to 20 mph ahead of and as the cold front passes. Elevated fire weather conditions may be reached, though critical conditions are not expected. Will continue to monitor.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
After the cold frontal passage Friday night, highs Saturday will be cooler and near normal, with highs forecast slightly cooler from 73 to 77 across the area. Soundings suggest that skies will remain mostly clear.
An upper trough west of the Four Corners Saturday night will lift over the Central and Southern Rockies on Sunday. This will bring a return of southerly winds, with winds on Sunday becoming breezy at 15 to 25 mph, along with higher dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. The upper flow across the area will become south southwesterly and bring an increase in cloudiness Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. No precipitation expected however. The main upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area Monday afternoon into Monday night. The GFS generates some very light QPFs Monday night, mainly in the west, while the ECMWF and GEM are mainly dry. The latest NBM forecast remains dry during this time. An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday is forecast to move into Saskatchewan Canada by Thursday. This will keep the region in southwesterly flow aloft and an upper ridge influence. Southerly winds may gust up to 30 mph on Monday, and to 25 mph Tuesday and Wednesday. Fire weather concerns should remain limited as afternoon humidity ranges from 35 to 45 percent.
Highs Sunday through next Thursday are forecast to be as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs in the lower to mid 80s, with mainly dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Skies will remain mostly clear to clear with light southwesterly winds overnight. Winds will increase during the day Friday with gusts around 20 knots at both terminals but potential for increased magnitudes with later forecasts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion