Braymer, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

603
FXUS63 KEAX 072253
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light Rain Monday Night and Tuesday Morning
- Temperatures Return to Above Normal Middle of Week
- Isolated Rain Activity Next Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Most of the vorticity and stronger flow associated with the closed-
low system centered near Hudson Bay with troughing extending into
the eastern Great Lakes continues to move eastward allowing ridge
axis to shift eastward across the Rockies toward the Central CONUS.
Strong dAVA continues to strengthen surface anticyclone which has
provided today`s mild weather conditions across the area. 850mb flow
has turned southwesterly promoting a modest WAA regime which has
allowed temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s today. H5 vort
max is set to move out of the Rockies this evening and quickly move
downstream of the ridge axis. Most of the mid-level height falls and
better lift should remain in central and eastern Kansas, west of the
forecast area. This is where tonight`s precipitation chances will be
concentrated. The boundary layer from the MO-KS state line and
eastward remains quite dry. Only the far northwestern portions of
Missouri will hold onto a slight chance (around 15-20% chance) for
some rainfall late tonight into early Monday.
Monday early afternoon, will be watching another mid-level vort max
across the Central Plains. Initially this may prompt a few hours of
H5 height rises that may dry conditions out during the afternoon,
but as this shifts eastward expecting to see broad scale lift
increase. With the anticyclone shifting toward the Ohio River
Valley, better moisture transport into lower Missouri River Valley
should occur, while deeper mixing takes place over the Central and
High Plains. This should result in some kind of thermal or moisture
boundary in eastern Kansas, eventually becoming the focus point for
light rain activity late Monday into early Tuesday. QPF amounts are
still fairly light, just a few tenths of an inch. Synoptic scale
ensemble suites depict about 50-60 probabilities from eastern Kansas
to west of Hwy. 65 in Missouri for measurable precipitation, and
generally less than 30% for over 0.25 inches. The CAMs have been
drier in recent runs for the Monday Night to Tuesday Morning period.
HREF probability matched means only have a few spots over 0.25
inches of rainfall. 12z HREF mean QPF output suggests heavier QPF
axis will remain in Kansas but west of the of the forecast area.
This may be a result of several CAMs being robust with mixing on
Monday resulting in a dry boundary layer, or not transporting as
much moisture as some of the other non-CAM models. Given the forcing
available would eventually expect rain for areas along and west of I-
35, and even could see activity eastward to around Hwy. 65 but
amounts may not be anything meaningful. CAPE axis will be confined
mainly to the KS-MO state line and generally well under 750 J/kg,
keeping thunder activity isolated. Better environment for
organization may be concentrated closer to the Kansas Flint Hills.
Tuesday, deep troughing over the western CONUS amplifies H5 ridge
across the Central CONUS and will provide stronger WAA to boost
temperatures into the mid and upper 80s through the remainder of the
week. Periodic isolated showers may be possible if any kind of
disturbance moves through the ridge, but boundary layer appears to
remain relatively dry. Ensembles are showing a signal for better
shower potential next weekend based on solutions suggesting the
troughing over the western CONUS finally shifts eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conds with sct-bkn high clouds are expected thru the pd.
Winds will be out of the SE btn 5-10kts thru 13Z-14Z when they
will veer to the south and incr to around 10kts. Aft 17Z, winds
will incr out of the south to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...73

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion