Brazoria, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS64 KHGX 191048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Continued hot conditions w/ a daily risk of isolated to widely
  scattered showers and storms over the next few days.
- Pattern expected to become more active next week, with a better
  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend
along with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Activity expected
to peak during the afternoon hours with daytime heating.
Southeasterly flow will prevail in the low levels this weekend,
bringing a deeper layer of Gulf moisture into SE Texas. Rain
chances will increase as a result of the influx of moisture. With
the plume of moisture coming from the south, expect the coastal
areas up to the Houston Metro to experience the higher chances of
rain to start. Most activity is expected to be in the afternoon
hours, again with peak daytime heating. As mentioned by previous
forecaster, NW flow aloft tends to be tricky for this area, so
will need to monitor the northern areas for any embedded
shortwaves in the overall flow. Any such event could trigger
thunderstorms in that area. NBM came in a bit higher than
previously forecasted, so it seems to be catching up to the other
deterministic models that have suggested an increase in PoPs. In
any case, expect the weather pattern to transition to become more
active over the next few days.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Again saw some patchy fog develop during the predawn hours this
morning at our typical spots (CXO, LBX), but this will dissipate
shortly after sunrise this morning. VFR conditions are then expected
to persist across the area for the rest of the day. Some isolated
showers or storms will be possible again today with greatest
chances along the coast and north of Huntsville. Any activity that
does develop will wane by sunset. Light/variable winds will
continue through the early morning, then become east to
southeasterly around 7-12kt this afternoon and evening. Light
winds return overnight tonight, thus some redevelopment of patchy
fog is possible.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
No changes to note from the previous discussion. Expecting East
to southeast winds 7-15kt and 2-4 ft seas to continue over the
next several days along with a daily risk of isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Isolated showers and storms
to start for Friday, particularly in the afternoon hours.  A more
predominate southeast wind direction will emerge later this
weekend along with a gradual increase in speeds, seas and rain
chances into next week. 47/Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  93  73  92  74 /  20  20  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  79  87  79 /  20  10  30  30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion