Brinktown, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

946
FXUS63 KSGF 240009
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
709 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall and flooding are
  possible this evening into tonight, mainly across our south
  and southwestern counties. A Flood Watch is in effect for
  portions of the area through tonight.
- The risk for severe weather has decrease, but there remains a
  risk for a few strong to marginally severe storms through
  this evening.
- Seasonal temperatures and lingering rain chances will occur
  midweek before drier, more pleasant conditions arrive into the
  weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
SPC mesoscale analysis and 00Z SGF radiosonde data shows mainly
500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE (slightly higher near South West
City, MO) and a capping inversion. This has inhibited storm
development. Shear profiles have become more backed in the mid
levels instead of deeply arced as shown in earlier model data,
preventing organization and promoting splitting of cells. These
factors have resulted in a decreased severe weather threat.
Still, may see a few strong to marginally severe storms, mainly
with a 1" hail and 60 mph wind threat. Tornadoes are no longer a
noteworthy concern.
Flooding concern has decreased some, but areas along and south
of a line from Branson to Carthage have generally seen 2-5
inches of rain today, so even moderate rain will quickly run off
in these areas. Thus, the Flood Watch will remain in place for
now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A warm front remains over the area with a surface low over
central Oklahoma and waves of upper level energy moving through.
The surface low will shift over the area this evening, resulting
in increased wind fields, including wind shear. Instability
remains limited across the area due to widespread rain and cloud
cover, but some clearing is occuring over the southwestern CWA,
where dewpoints are higher than elsewhere at around 70F. MLCAPE
should increase to 1,000-2,000 J/kg south of I-44 later this
afternoon into the evening with effective shear of 40-50 kts and
SRH of 200-300. Long arcing hodographs (including SE surface
winds) will result in a tornado threat, but thinking that will
be greatest along the MO/AR border where the greatest low level
instability exists along a remnant convective boundary.
Overall expectations are for an uptick in convection later this
afternoon and evening, with some convection become severe given
ample fields for organized severe weather. Hail up to golf ball
size will be possible (mainly over the southwestern CWA) and
damaging winds along and south of I-44. A low end (5%) tornado
threat exists near the MO/AR border.
By late evening, stronger convection should exit the
southeastern CWA, but light rain, fog, and at times drizzle will
linger into Wednesday night or perhaps early Thursday. This is
due to the upper trough remaining over the area. Look for highs
in the 70s Wednesday and lows in the 50s Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
After precip exits the area Wednesday night or Thursday morning,
the rest of the long term is dry. Look for a gradually warning
trend from highs in the 70s Thursday to the low to mid 80s
Saturday, where it will remain into at least early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible this
evening. For tonight, IFR ceilings will develop as low level
moistures moves in, along fog/drizzle and showers. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday with IFR
to MVFR ceilings.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ088-093>097-
     101>105.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Titus
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion