Bristol, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

533
FXUS65 KPUB 301108
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
508 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming and drying trend begins today, with isolated showers
  and thunderstorms remaining possible over the Palmer Divide
  and the rest of the high country this afternoon and this
  evening.
- Dry weather with above seasonal temperatures through the end
  of the work week.
- Increasing coverage of showers and storms Friday night, with
  cooler and more unsettled weather on tap for the weekend into
  early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Currently...
Skies are mostly clear over the plains, with some areas of mid-level
clouds still present over portions of the high country. The wave has
pushed across/past much of the area and is exiting to our northeast
as of 2 AM. Temperatures are in the 40s and 50s across both of our
plains and our mountain valleys. Dewpoints are mostly in the 40s,
with some 30s for our higher elevations locations like Leadville.
Winds are mainly weak, and are either following normal drainage
pattern or are southerly further east on our plains. Showers have
all dissipated.
Today and Tonight...
Another shortwave looks to pass overhead this afternoon, though this
one looks much weaker than what passed over yesterday. We are also
already much drier in the low-levels. Both of these factors will
combine to generate far less coverage for showers and thunderstorms
today. Isolated activity will still be possible over much of the
high country, along with the Palmer Divide this evening as well.
Instability will be much weaker than yesterday, though wind gusts to
40 mph and moderate to briefly heavy rainfall will still be possible
with storms today, along with frequent lightning. Temperatures today
will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs around 3 to
5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. This will mean
highs in the mid 80s for most of the plains, upper 70s for the Pikes
Peak region, and lower 70s for the San Luis Valley. We look to stay
dry through the overnight hours, with warmer than normal
temperatures persisting. That said, patchy frost will still be
possible for portions of the San Luis Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Wednesday...Modest westerly flow aloft continues across the region,
as upper level ridging builds across the Rockies through the day.
This pattern will keep dry conditions in place across the region,
with temperatures warming back above seasonal levels, with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains, and mainly in the 60s
and 70s across the higher terrain, with high level clouds passing
from west to east through the morning.
Wednesday night-Friday...Modest west to southwest flow aloft across
the region on Thursday, becomes more southwest and increases through
the day Friday, as upper level ridging across the Rockies moves east
ahead of an upper trough digging across the Great Basin. Again, this
pattern keeps dry conditions and above seasonal temperatures (some 5
to 15 degrees above normal) in place through the end of the work week,
with highs in the 80s to lower 90s expected across the plains, warmest
on Friday, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
Overnight lows look to remain at and above seasonal levels as well,
with no widespread freezing temperatures in the offing through this
period.
Friday Night-Sunday night...Latest model data slows the progression
of said Great Basin upper trough, though continue to differ on its
amplitude as it lifts out across the Rockies through Saturday night.
Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring increasing coverage of
showers and a few possible embedded thunderstorms, along and west
of the ContDvd Friday night and Saturday. Chances of precipitation
spread east through the day Saturday into Saturday night. Current
NBM data keeps the best chances of precipitation along the ContDvd and
generally north of the Highway 50 Corridor. Snow levels remain relatively
high (at or above 10,000 feet) with some light accumulations expected
across the higher peaks, though snow levels remain subject to change
if the systems takes a more southern path. The passing system sends
a front across the region on Saturday, with a secondary front pushing
across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, leading to cooler
temperatures areawide by Sunday. How much cooler remains the question,
with NBM data and other numerical guidance indicating uncertainty and
larger spreads in temperatures for the weekend. At any rate, NBM supports
highs in the 70s and 80s early on Saturday across the plains, and in the
50s and 60s across the higher terrain, with temperatures likely cooling
through the afternoon. Sunday`s temperatures cool even more, with highs
mainly 60s and 70s across the plains, and mainly in the 50s and 60s
across the higher terrain. Will need to watch for the potential for
sub-freezing temperatures late Sunday night into early Monday morning,
mainly across the San Luis Valley.
Monday-Tuesday...Latest model data continue to differ on the timing
and location of secondary energy digging back across the Great Basin,
as well as the amount of available moisture across the region into
the beginning of next week. With that said, NBM data keeps temperatures
at to slightly seasonal levels, along with chances of precipitation
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites for the next 24
hours. Winds will be light and diurnally driven. Scattered mid and
upper-level cloud decks will prevail through much of the forecast
period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion